By Wedaeli Chibelushi
As it became clear that Donald Trump had landed the US presidency for the second time, leaders from across Africa began tweeting their congratulations.
"Zimbabwe stands ready to
work with you", wrote Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa, eyeing a
diplomatic reset, while Nigeria's Bola Tinubu expressed hope that Trump's
second term would bring "reciprocal economic and development partnerships
between Africa and the United States".
But will Trump 2.0 be good for
the continent? During his first stint in the White House critics accused him of
dismissing Africa, having cut some funding, curbed immigration and reportedly
referred to some of its nations as "shithole countries".
However, he did also introduce
schemes to increase investment in Africa - schemes that remain operational
three years after he left office.
But how might he approach
Africa in this new climate?
Trade and investment
Joe Biden's outgoing
administration "tried really hard to create an impression that Africa was
a valued and important partner", W Gyude Moore, a fellow at the Center for
Global Development and former Liberian minister, tells the BBC.
Biden struggled to match this
enthusiasm with substantial deals and partnerships, Mr Moore says, but that
does not mean his Africa strategy was fruitless.
For instance, the US was
praised for investing in the Lobito Corridor - a rail line stretching through
Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia that will be used to
transport critical raw materials.
In 2023, the US said it had invested more than $22bn since Biden
came to power.
But there are concerns Trump
might roll back on this investment and trade. The soon-to-be president has more
of a protectionist, insular outlook than Biden - one of the slogans for his
first term was "America First".
The African Growth and
Opportunity Act (Agoa), which has enabled eligible African countries to export
some of their produce to the US without paying taxes since 2000, is a key
source of concern.
During his previous
administration, Trump said the scheme would not be renewed when it expires in
2025.
And during his 2024 campaign
he pledged to implement a universal 10% income tariff on all foreign-made
goods. This would make imported goods more expensive, and so African exporters
would be likely to sell less of their produce in the large US market.
Numerous commentators in South
Africa - one of the largest exporters under the Agoa agreement - have predicted
that cutting Agoa could have a significant impact on the economy.
However, US think-tank
the Brookings Institution predicts that South Africa's GDP
would shrink by "just 0.06%". This is partly because many of the
goods South Africa exports to the US - such as minerals and metal - do not
actually benefit from Agoa, it said.
Although Trump was not keen on
Agoa, he recognised that if the US was going to counter China's growing
economic influence in Africa, it needed to maintain some level of partnership.
In 2018 the Trump
administration unveiled Prosper Africa - an initiative that assists US
companies wanting to invest in Africa - and the Development Finance Corporation
(DFC), which funds development projects in Africa and around the world. Biden
kept both running after he took over and the DFC says
it has so far invested more than $10bn (£8bn) in Africa.
Given that China is still a
major force in Africa and that Trump introduced these policies himself, he is
likely to think twice before slashing them.
Aid
Africa gets most of its aid
from the US, which said it had donated almost $3.7bn over this
financial year.
But Trump's last
administration repeatedly made proposals to slash foreign aid worldwide,
according to reports. Congress - where foreign aid had bipartisan support -
rejected these cuts.
Had the cuts been implemented,
"traditional US policies with respect to health, democracy promotion, and
security assistance in Africa would have been eviscerated," said the
Council on Foreign Relations, a Washington think-tank.
There may be less pushback to
aid cuts if the Republicans win a significant majority in Congress following
Tuesday's elections, however. The party has already secured the Senate -
Congress' upper chamber - and currently has a majority in the lower chamber -
the House of Representatives.
There are also worries Trump
might shut Pepfar, a long-running US initiative that has poured huge sums into
fighting HIV in Africa.
Last year, Republican
lawmakers mounted significant opposition to Pepfar, alleging that the programme
was promoting abortion services. It was granted a short-term extension until
March next year, but Trump - known for being anti-abortion - may shut the door
on this reprieve.
Immigration
Trump's views on illegal
immigration are clear - during his 2024 campaign he promised
to deport one million people who do not have legal permission to be in the
United States.
This concerns Africa as in
2022, around 13,000 African migrants were recorded at the US-Mexico border,
according to US Customs and Border protection data. By 2023, this figure had
quadrupled to 58,000. Some of these hopefuls speak of fleeing war, persecution
and poverty.
This would not be his first
dramatic anti-immigration policy. In his first term, Trump introduced measures
that curbed immigration from several African countries, including Nigeria,
Eritrea, Sudan and Tanzania.
Kenyan newsite Taifo Leo
reported that migrants from the East African country, who number about 160,000,
are worried that they will face discrimination with Trump as president.
Security and conflict
While Trump has been away from
the presidency, Russia has stepped up its presence in Africa.
One of the main ways it has
done this is through providing troops and arms to countries hit by jihadist
militants, such as Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.
Russia's foothold has alarmed
the US - the two are historic rivals.
Will Trump offer support to
African countries in an attempt to push Russia out?
"Even though the national
security architecture in the United States perceives Russia as a threat, Trump
personally has not acted as if he perceives Russia as a threat," Mr Moore
tells the BBC.
There is speculation that Trump has a closer relationship with
Russian President Vladimir Putin than he lets on.
However, Trump has in the past
stepped in to help Nigeria fight Boko Haram, a group of Islamist militants
which has plagued the West African country for 15 years.
"During [former President
Barack] Obama's tenure, Nigerian-Americans advocated tirelessly for him, yet he
declined Nigeria's requests for arms. When our communities in northern Nigeria
were under attack by Boko Haram, it was Trump who ultimately approved the
purchase of Tucano jets, allowing us to strengthen our defences," former
lawmaker Ehiozuwa Johnson Agbonayinmma told Nigerian news outlet the Vanguard.
There is also the issue of
Sudan's civil war, which has been rumbling on for 18 months and has killed tens
of thousands of people.
"Trump is very
transactional," Mr Moore said. "I'm really doubtful that the Trump
administration is going to care more about what's happening in Sudan than, say,
the Biden administration did."
But ultimately, there is no
way to be totally sure what Trump will set his sights on once he is in office.
As Mr Moore says: "Trump
is very unorthodox in how he does everything. So one has to be pretty open to
new things, not necessarily good things, but new things happening."
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