By Paul Melly, LONDON
Yet another coup in Africa -
just five weeks after Niger's President Mohamed Bazoum was taken hostage by the
troops of his own presidential guard, Gabon's Ali Bongo also finds himself
detained in his own residence.
A sudden statement on national
television in the early hours of Wednesday, to declare Mr Bongo the winner of
last Sunday's election, was followed within minutes by a second surprise
broadcast, as a clutch of soldiers announced the seizure of power in the former
French colony.
Later in the day, as footage
of celebrating crowds emerged - after the new junta had lifted the internet
shutdown imposed by Mr Bongo's regime on the eve of the polls and maintained
the shutdown throughout an opaque vote "count" - the deposed head of
state appeared in an online video sent from his place of confinement.
Looking bewildered, he
appealed - in English - for friends outside to "make noise", in
apparent hope that external pressure might reverse the shock turn of events, a
prospect that seems remote.
But even if Mr Bongo himself
was caught unprepared by the coup, perhaps Africa and the world should not have
been.
The 26 July overthrow of Mr
Bazoum in Niger gave ample warning that West and Central Africa's
"coup-epidemic" had not run its course.
In January last year, it had
been the turn of Burkina Faso's President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré to be
deposed by soldiers - whose leader was then himself dethroned by lower ranking
counterparts on 30 September, just eight months later.
And before that, 2021 had
brought two coups in West Africa. In May, Col Assimi Goïta, already author of a
previous military takeover in Mali, had staged a second putsch to reassert his
own power.
Then in September Guinea's
special forces fought their way into the Sékhoutouréyah palace in Conakry to
take President Alpha Condé into custody.
And we should not forget Chad
where, following the April 2021 death in battle of long-time strongman Idriss
Déby Itno, a military council stepped in to ensure the succession of his son
and, thus, the continuation of the regime.
What on earth is happening in
West and Central Africa - and in former French colonies in particular?
Six years ago the departure
into exile of the electorally-defeated Gambian ruler Yahya Jammeh left every
country in West Africa under multi-party constitutional rule.
In the centre of the continent
some authoritarian regimes survived, but the era of military takeovers seemed
long past.
Yet the past three years have
seen seven coups in five countries - plus the strong-armed military assumption
of power in Chad.
There are common factors that
have, at the very least, created conditions in which soldiers have felt they
can step in with relative impunity, and often with the support of a large slice
of the urban population, especially frustrated young people.
Across much of West and
Central Africa, younger citizens have become widely disenchanted with the
traditional political class, even with those who have been legitimately elected
to office.
Such disillusionment is
fuelled by a raft of issues - a shortage of jobs and even informal economic
opportunities for both graduates and those less educated, perceived high levels
of corruption and privilege among the elite, as well as resentment at the persistent
influence of France in the many countries where it is the former colonial
power.
But there is also deep
resentment at the way many civilian rulers manipulate electoral processes or
constitutional rule to prolong their hold on power. The scrapping of
presidential term limits - after controversial amendments to constitutions - is
a source of especially sore feelings.
And such abuses also undermine
the moral authority of bodies such as the African Union - or the Economic
Community of West African States (Ecowas), often labelled an "incumbent
presidents' club" - in seeking to force coup leaders to restore elected
civilian rule.
The Central African regional
bloc to which Gabon belongs does not even have serious pretentions to establish
or sustain governance standards across member states.
But while all these factors
create a climate in which soldiers have felt increasingly emboldened about
seizing power, claiming to offer a "fresh start", each coup has also
been driven by specific national or narrow local motivations - and the takeover
in Gabon is no exception.
Many Gabonese were sceptical
about Mr Bongo's decision to stand for a third term. He first came to power in
elections 14 years ago following the death of his father, Omar Bongo, who had
monopolised the presidency for more than 40 years.
There were also serious doubts
about his capacity to provide effective leadership, as he had suffered from a
stroke in October 2018.
The deposed president's rule
did see serious efforts to modernise the government machine, diversify the
economy and tackle social inequality; and he earned international plaudits for
proactive and innovative efforts to protect Gabon's rainforests and rich
biodiversity. There were some concessions to the political opposition.
But the reform momentum faded
gradually, while the regime proved ultimately unwilling to expose itself to
serious electoral challenge.
Indeed, from the outset Mr
Bongo's legitimacy and political standing was undermined by the opaque conduct
of the election that brought him to power in 2009. Many people thought that
André Mba Obame, his main electoral rival, had probably been the real winner.
And when he stood for
re-election in 2016, in a tight race against former foreign minister Jean Ping,
he only clinched a narrow victory when official results from Haut Ogooué
region, the Bongo family's political fiefdom, came in, recording an unbelievably
huge number of votes for him. Yet the polling station records of these supposed
votes were destroyed before they could be checked.
In the latest election, Mr
Bongo was declared the winner with 64% of the vote. He did not allow any
international observers to monitor the poll, and the opposition rejected the
result as fraudulent.
The military finally stepped
in, saying the election "did not meet the conditions for a transparent,
credible and inclusive ballot so much hoped for by the people of Gabon"
Many Gabonese have welcomed
the coup, but it does raise fears about the future of democracy in many
countries in West and Central Africa.
Paul Melly is a consulting
fellow with the Africa Programme at Chatham House in London.
