SAO PAULO, Brazil
Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva
has been elected the next president of Brazil, in a stunning comeback following
a tight run-off race on Sunday. His victory heralds a
political about-face for Latin America’s largest country, after four years of
Jair Bolsonaro’s far-right administration. |
A supporter of Lula da Silva reacts while gathering with fellow supporters on the day of the Brazilian presidential election run-off, in Brasilia, Brazil October 30, 2022. |
The 76-year-old politician’s
win represents the return of the left into power in Brazil, and concludes a
triumphant personal comeback for Lula da Silva, after a series of corruption
allegations lead to his imprisonment for 580 days. The sentences were later
annulled by the Supreme Court, clearing his path to run for reelection.
“They tried to bury me alive
and I’m here,” he said in a jubilant speech to supporters and journalists on
Sunday evening, describing the win as his political “resurrection.”
“Starting on January 1, 2023,
I will govern for the 215 million Brazilians, not just the ones who voted for
me. There are not two Brazils. We are one country, one people, one great
nation,” Lula da Silva also said.
He will take the reins of a
country plagued by gross inequality that is still struggling to recover from
the Covid-19 pandemic. Approximately 9.6 million people fell under the poverty
line between 2019 and 2021, and literacy and school attendance rates have fallen.
He will also be faced with a deeply fractured nation and urgent environmental
issues, including rampant deforestation in the Amazon.
This will be his third term,
after previously governing Brazil for two consecutive terms between 2003 and
2010.
The former leader’s victory on
Sunday was the latest in a political wave across Latin America, with wins by
left-leaning politicians in Argentina, Colombia and Chile. But Lula da Silva –
a former union leader with a blue-collar background – has sought to reassure
moderates throughout his campaign.
He has built a broad alliance
including several politicians from the center and center-right, including
historical opponents from the PSDB, Brazil’s Social Democrat Party. Among these
politicians is his vice-president, former São Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin,
who has been cited by the Lula camp as a guarantee of moderation in his
administration.
On the campaign trail, Lula da
Silva has been reluctant to show his cards when it came to outlining an
economic strategy – a tendency that earned sharp criticism from his
competitors. “Who is the other candidate’s economy minister? There isn’t one,
he doesn’t say. What will be his political and economic route? More state? Less
state? We don’t know…,” said Bolsonaro during a live transmission on YouTube on
October 22.
Lula da Silva has said that he
would push Congress to approve a tax reform which would exempt low-earners from
paying income tax. And his campaign received a boost from centrist former
presidential candidate Simone Tebet, who came third in the first round earlier
this month and gave Lula da Silva her support in the run-off. Known for her
ties with Brazil’s agricultural industry, Tebet said in an October 7 press
conference that Lula da Silva and his economic team had “received and
incorporated all the suggestions from our program to his government’s program.”
He has also received the
support of several renowned economists highly regarded by investors, including
Arminio Fraga, a former president of the Brazilian Central Bank.
Lula da Silva received more
than 60 million votes, the most in Brazilian history, breaking his own record
from 2006.
But despite the huge turnout
from his supporters, his victory was by a narrow margin – Lula da Silva won
50.90% of the vote and Bolsonaro received 49.10%, according to Brazil’s electoral authority.
His biggest challenge now may
be unifying a politically fractured country.
Hours after the results were
announced, Bolsonaro had yet to concede defeat or make any public statement.
Meanwhile, videos on social media showed his supporters had blocked highways in
two states to protest against Lula da Silva’s victory.
“We will only leave once the
army takes over the country,” one unidentified Bolsonaro supporter said in a
video taken in the southern state of Santa Catarina.
Lula da Silva will need to
pursue dialogue and rebuild relationships, said Carlos Melo, a political
scientist at Insper, a university in São Paulo. “The president can be an
important instrument for this as long as he is not only concerned in addressing
his base of voters,” he said.
With more than 58 million
votes cast for his rival Bolsonaro – who had been endorsed by former US
President Donald Trump – Lula da Silva will have to form “pragmatic alliances”
with parts of the center and the right that bought into his predecessor’s
politics, adds Thiago Amparo, professor of law and human rights at FGV business
school in São Paulo.
At the same time, he will have
to deliver to match supporters’ expectations, Amparo added. “Many voters went
to the ballot expecting that, not just to get rid of Bolsonaro, but with
memories of better economic times during Lula’s previous governments.”
Many will be watching for
potential change to the 2017 Labor Reform Act, which subjected more workers’
rights and benefits to negotiation with employers, and made union contributions
optional. Lula da Silva had said previously that he would revoke the act but
recently changed the verb to “review” following criticisms from the private
sector.
He may find that enacting his
agenda is an uphill battle, Amparo warns, especially with a hostile Congress.
Seats that were from the traditional right are now occupied by the far right,
who are not open to negotiation and not easy to deal with, underlines Amparo.
In the latest elections,
Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party increased its representatives in the lower house from
76 to 99, while in the Senate it doubled from seven members to 14. Lula da
Silva’s Workers’ Party has also increased its number of deputies from 56 to 68
and senators from seven to eight – but overall, conservative-leaning
politicians will dominate the next legislature.
That friction will require
some compromises, points out Camila Rocha, a political scientist at the Cebrap
think tank. “[Bolsonaro’s] Liberal Party will have the highest number of
representatives and important allies and will make real opposition to the
government, [Lula da Silva’s] Worker’s Party will have to sow a coalition with
[traditional rightwing party] União Brasil in order to govern, which means the
negotiation of ministries and key positions,” Rocha told to CNN.