NIAMEY, Niger
The Community of West African States (ECOWAS), while favouring the path of dialogue, gave the green light to an armed intervention against the soldiers who took power on July 26 in Niger, by activating its " standby force".
But experts doubt the
feasibility of a high-risk and difficult-to-implement military operation. The
"standby force" is mandated by ECOWAS for missions related to
peacekeeping. It has already been deployed in Sierra Leone, Liberia,
Guinea-Bissau and Gambia.
However, ECOWAS "has
never agreed on the type of specific missions that these forces should carry
out", explains Marc-André Boisvert, researcher and consultant on the Sahel
affiliated with the Center FrancoPaix in Montreal.
The establishment of such a
force "depends on the will of the contributors", which "requires
a lot of negotiations between the countries", he says. However,
"there is a lot of mistrust between the countries" of ECOWAS
according to him.
Senegal, Benin, Nigeria and
Côte d'Ivoire have said they are ready to send troops, but face internal
criticism and hesitation from other West African countries.
"Basically, the African
standby force was not designed to restore constitutional order in a country
where there was a putsch (...) African states are very jealous in general of their
sovereignty and especially in the security and defense affairs", says Elie
Tenenbaum, of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).
In addition, "It is
difficult to release personnel in these armies which are fragile and lack
means" , according to him. For the time being, only Côte d'Ivoire has
specified the number of troops it would be ready to commit to such an
intervention, ie a thousand men.
"Such an operation should
mobilize 3,000 to 4,000 soldiers," said Senegalese General Mansour Seck.
The strength of the Nigerien army is estimated at around 30,000 men, including
some 11,000 deployed in the theater of operations, said President Bazoum in
2022.
Mali and Burkina Faso have
also warned ECOWAS against any intervention in Niger, which would be likened to
a " declaration of war". But doubt remains as to the ability of their
armies to reinforce the Niamey regime, while their soldiers are struggling with
armed jihadist groups on their own territory.
All the experts agree on the
difficulty of carrying out such a military operation in Niger or in its
capital. A land offensive would force West African forces to travel several
hundred kilometers over hostile territory, and an air operation on the
presidential palace where the ousted president is being held raises just as
many doubts.
In the latter case, Niamey
airport could be of strategic importance in order to deploy airborne troops,
according to analysts.
The ECOWAS chiefs of staff
"want to take Niamey airport and bomb the presidential palace, but we have
modern anti-aircraft defense that is capable of shooting down their
aircraft", assures Amadou Bounty Diallo, analyst and former Nigerian
soldier.
For General Seck, "the
airstrip is easy to occupy by the putschists, they just need to put thousands
of young people there", on whom the pilots will not be able to shoot to
free it. “It will not be a simple military operation (…) Getting bogged down is
one of the risks involved, it also depends on the determination of the people
on the spot,” he said.
The 700 men of the
presidential guard, spearhead of the coup, constitute the hard core of a
potential resistance, but the combativeness of the other units of the Nigerien
army in the event of intervention is debated. - Africa
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