Soldiers stand guard as supporters of Niger's National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland gather for a demonstration in Niamey near a French airbase in Niger on August 11, 2023. (Courtesy)
By Mohammed Momoh, ABUJA
Nigeria
Nigeria may have led the world
in condemning the coup in Niger, but the two countries are tied to the hip when
it comes to fighting insurgencies.
Which is why some local
officials, and security experts are banking on hope that Niger’s problems do
not go beyond the coup and collapse the country.
On Tuesday, August 22, the
Nigerien junta proposed a three-year transition timeline back to democracy.
The West African bloc,
Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) rejected it, demanding it happens sooner. Ecowas has
been proposing military intervention but has since been slowed by the African
Union which wants to first determine the impact of such a move.
Experts think whatever happens
now must consider the traditional cooperation between the two countries, as
well as cooperation with Cameroon and Chad, against an insurgency menace around
the Lake Chad Basin.
Mr Aliyu Saulawa, acting
chairman of Katsina Elders Forum, a local lobby for harmony, said the
consequences of military intervention by the Ecowas in Niger may end up hurting
Nigeria.
Days after the coup in Niamey,
however, the initial hard stance by President Bola Tinubu and threats to attack
Niamey in an Ecowas intervention force have cooled. The 'standby force' has since been sounded and Niamey’s
junta leaders sanctioned.
Yet, there is realisation that
any tension between them could cause a rise in terror merchants, taking
advantage of broken communication.
The Nigerian military has been
fighting separately, and jointly alongside the Multinational Joint Task Force
comprising soldiers of Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger. They have been
targeting ISIS West African Province (Iswap) but its presence beyond the
borders, and even beyond the Lake Chad area, has made the war more complex.
Iswap has also been targeting rivals Boko Haram with deadly
consequences.
While any rivalry or even
implosion between terror merchants can help security forces in some way, the
toll in Nigeria and neighbouring countries where these groups operate has been
horrid.
In Nigeria, since 2009, these
insurgents are responsible for 68,000 deaths, thousands of kidnappings
including of schoolgirls, and a decimated economic and social scene.
In Northeast region of Nigeria, there have been 2.1 million
people displaced in the wake of Boko Haram and other groups, and decimation of
schools and critical infrastructure, including telecom and electricity.
Boko Haram, meaning ‘Western
Education is evil’, first struck in Borno State in 2009 as a revolutionary
rejection of formal education with the group seeking to establish Sharia states
in northeastern Nigeria’s Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states.
This region has about 21 million
people who share borders, culture and language relations with Chad, Niger and
Cameroon.
The military initially won the
battle against Boko Haram but when Iswap launched its version of terror,
that victory was drained as dangerous groups simply spread beyond the initial
Adamawa and Yobe states.
Boko Haram’s fortunes dwindled
when its leader Abubakar Shekau blew himself up in May 2021 after being
cornered by rival Iswap, according to an official intelligence account by the
Nigerian military.
Shekau had taken over from
spiritual leader Mohammed Yusuf, who was killed in a police raid after the 2009
riot in Maiduguri, capital city of Borno state.
Experts think rivalry between
these two groups has decimated their own numbers but has also hurt the civilian
losses.
Mr Zagazola Makama, a counter
terrorism expert in Borno, says that Iswap are struggling to edge out Boko
Haram and the clashes have led to the death of more than 12,500 men on both
sides since 2021.
Mr Hamidu Alassan, a security
expert who calls himself a reformed terrorist, said that Boko Haram and Iswap are
fighting in the vast Sambisa Forest, in Lake Chad Basin, to control resources,
including extortion.
Yet membership in these groups
is also fuelled by poverty in the shared areas by these countries. Oba Ajibade
Ogunoye, a traditional ruler in Southwest region of Nigeria, argues that
poverty, illiteracy and unemployment has helped insurgents to establish cells
there.
“Our youth want to survive by
all means and there is high level of unemployment and poverty.”
The Nigerian government has
also reported that the terrorists and bandits were attracted by enormous
minerals, especially gold, which they mine illegally. But first, they need
weapons. Any form of lawlessness can grant that avenue.
According to a special report
of the United States Institute of Peace (Usip), there is no possibility, for
now, of government officials engaging in dialogue with any of the groups. But
the groups themselves, it says, are not homogenous as they are constantly
seeking supremacy.
“The group’s cell-like
structure is open for factions and splits, and there would be no guarantee that
someone speaking for the group is speaking for all of the members,” the report
says.
That doesn’t mean the
brutality against the group will eliminate it, however.
“Their (forces) reliance on
extrajudicial execution as a tactic in dealing with any problem in Nigeria not
only created Boko Haram and Iswap as they are known today, but also
sustains them and gives then fuel to expand,” Usip reported.
Yet, for the military and its
officers such as Maj-Gen Valentine Okoro, the General Officer Commanding (Goc)
of 2 Division of the Nigerian Army, the result matters in whatever method
adopted to curb terrorism.
“We are committed to provide
safety and security to all Nigerians; that is a task that we must do; that is a
task which we cannot afford to compromise.’’
All the 14 local governments
hitherto in their command have been liberated, he argues.
The military reports that more
than 120,000 insurgents, including their families, have surrendered since
2009.
The governor of Borno State,
Prof Babagana Zulum, confirms that many of the terrorists that have surrendered
and have undergone profiling, rehabilitation and integration into
society.
“The pressure is mounting on
the terrorists because many of them and their families are surrendering while
many others have fled to other parts of Nigeria, especially in the Northwest
and North Central,” he said.
The task force Spokesman,
Lt-Col Abubakar Abdullahi, said the development was due to their intensified
operations.
“In the wake of escalated
kinetic and non-kinetic operations by the Multinational Joint Task Force
(MNJTF), coupled with a dwindling logistic supply to their hideouts, mass
surrenders rattle Boko Haram and Iswap insurgents,” he said.
Yet the hydra-headed nature of
the insurgents means a lapse on collaboration may allow new cells to
re-germinate.
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