How stable is Russia after the Wagner rebellion?

By Miodrag Soric

The Wagner Group's mutiny ended abruptly, and now its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is dead. But recent events have left their mark. How firm is Putin's grip on authority? Is Russia, a nuclear power, on the brink of chaos?

Wagner mercenaries encountered little resistance, but their rebellion was called off the next day

When thousands of mercenaries from the Wagner Group marched toward Moscow two months ago, they encountered little resistance. The next day, their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in a plane crash last week, called off the coup, and the anticipated Kremlin power struggle came to nothing.

But people have not forgotten how weak Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared at the time when he spoke first of "negotiations" and then "betrayal" in the space of just a few hours.

Since the cancellation of the uprising, there has been some debate about the stability of Russia. Janis Sarts, the director of NATO's Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence in Riga, believes the march on Moscow constituted a blow to the power in the Kremlin.

Martins Vargulis, the deputy director of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, agrees. He thinks forces inside Russia are threatening Putin's power.

Meanwhile, inflation in Russia continues to rise, with the ruble falling against the dollar and euro. Moscow's pro-government propaganda paper Izvestia has complained that, outside the capital, there are long lines at gas stations — in Russia, the world's third-largest oil producer.

Moscow's war of aggression against Ukraine is also faltering. In recent weeks, Ukraine has mainly been the one to report small territorial gains.

Stefan Meister of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) thinks this is not likely right now. He tells DW that Putin's regime has managed to win over a large part of the population with repression and propaganda and is managing to circumvent Western sanctions to some degree. Many companies, including some Western ones, are still active in Russia.

Meister has observed a reduction in prosperity among the Russian population. However, he says the country cannot be said to be disintegrating, nor is Putin showing signs of weakness.

He believes that if Putin were to be challenged someday, it would be by someone from within the security apparatus. At the moment, though, the Russia expert believes that Putin is "firmly in the saddle" and has sufficient resources to pursue his war against Ukraine for another two or three years.

How strong is Vladimir Putin’s grip on power at the moment?

Tobias Fella, a researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH), agrees that Russia is not currently facing significant instability. However, things could become problematic for the Kremlin, he says, if the government has to mobilize more troops or the economic situation deteriorates dramatically. Fella comments that Russia has proven itself to be "militarily adaptive" following Ukraine's recent territorial gains at the front.

Some Western experts speculate that the Kremlin itself could be spreading the narrative that Russia is teetering on the brink of chaos. Were this to be the case, they suggest, the aim would be to weaken the West's support for Ukraine — the idea being that the West could accept Ukraine being forced to give up territory but not Russian nuclear missiles going AWOL.

Meister does not subscribe to these theories. His view is that Putin's system is actually demonstrating strength — including with the death of Prigozhin. He doesn't believe that oligarchs, society, the military or the people who surround Putin and depend on him could call his power into question. Only the intelligence services or the security apparatus might one day be able to do that, he says.

According to Meister, minor military defeats in Ukraine do not put Putin's power at risk. The only thing that might make a difference, he says, would be if Ukraine succeeded in taking back Crimea, for example, and all its territories currently occupied by Russia.

This article has been translated from German.