MAPUTO, Mozambique
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) military deployment in Cabo Delgado is likely to extend through 2022 and still be unable to contain the expanding insurgency in northern Mozambique, Eurasia Group predicts.
According to
the political risk assessment company, the recent outbreak of unrest in the
provinces of KwaZulu Natal and Gauteng has led South Africa – leader of the
SADC mission, which has a planned deployment of troops of around 3,000, backed
by air and naval means – to rethink its participation in military support to
Mozambique.
Pretoria
“made authorisation of the mission conditional on assessments by the South
African and Botswana intelligence services confirming the need for it. The
change in position is due in part to the internal security situation,” the
Eurasia Group said in a report released at the end of last week.
The South
African government has deployed 25,000 troops to quell recent unrest in the
provinces of KwaZulu Natal and Gauteng, where they are to remain until October.
But
Pretoria’s change of position is still linked to concerns about SADC member
states’ funding of the operation.
The
sub-regional organisation initially budgeted the operation in northern
Mozambique at $12 million. Still, cost estimates have since risen to $60
million, much on the back of expectations that the mission will now run until
mid-2022.
“The
economic impact of the unrest in South Africa and the additional expenditure by
the South African state to address its socio-economic challenges make it
unlikely that South Africa will meet its quota of a total 1,500 troops
earmarked for the SADC force,” the analyst institute estimates.
On the other
hand, other SADC member states “have so far shown no willingness to fill the
financial and personnel gap left by South Africa, calling into question the
effectiveness of the regional intervention,” Eurasia Group adds.
A small
battalion of South African troops, made up of special forces and unrelated to
the planned SADC force, was deployed in northern Mozambique on 22 July, but “it
is unlikely” that these troops will have “a significant impact” on the
evolution of the conflict, the risk assessment institution says.
“The SADC
response is now likely to be significantly smaller, leaving Mozambique
dependent on further troop deployments from Rwanda and potentially Angola,” the
report adds.
Mozambique
has requested assistance from Rwanda to carry out combat operations in Cabo
Delgado, but “it is unlikely” that the security situation in the province will
stabilise in the short term, “due to a lack of coordination between Mozambican
and Rwandan troops, which has led to tensions between the two contingents,” the
institution also stresses.
“So far, the
Mozambican troops have not been willing to accept the direction of their
Rwandan counterparts and have retreated on two separate occasions, leaving the
Rwandan troops isolated,” illustrates the Eurasia Group.
This dynamic
could be exacerbated by the arrival of troops from SADC, whose force has its
own commander. Mozambique is creating a joint operational command, but no
announcement has been made about who will lead this structure or where it will
be based.
The
operational challenges facing the joint military mission “will likely
facilitate the insurgency’s southward spread towards the locations of liquefied
natural gas (LNG) projects,” the same source estimated.
According to
Eurasia Group, attacks by insurgent groups “have followed each other since 20
July in the vicinity of Palma”, where fighting last broke out in April.
Palma, 30km
from many of the LNG projects under development, has been the base for many
foreign contractors. It is unlikely that any LNG projects in northern
Mozambique will restart operations until the area is secure.
“The
long-term security and stability of LNG projects in the region will benefit
from training programmes for the Mozambican armed forces run by the United
States, European Union, and Portugal. Given Total’s significant investment in
the country, France could contribute additional resources to the training of
the Mozambican security forces,” Eurasia Group concluded.
Armed groups
have terrorised Cabo Delgado province since 2017, with some attacks claimed by
the radical armed group Islamic State.
The attacks
have so far claimed more than 3,100 lives, according to the ACLED conflict
registration project, and are at the root of more than 817,000 displaced
people, according to Mozambican authorities.
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