SADC stays in Mozambique to 2022 , may not manage to counter insurgency – analysts

MAPUTO, Mozambique

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) military deployment in Cabo Delgado is likely to extend through 2022 and still be unable to contain the expanding insurgency in northern Mozambique, Eurasia Group predicts.

According to the political risk assessment company, the recent outbreak of unrest in the provinces of KwaZulu Natal and Gauteng has led South Africa – leader of the SADC mission, which has a planned deployment of troops of around 3,000, backed by air and naval means – to rethink its participation in military support to Mozambique.

Pretoria “made authorisation of the mission conditional on assessments by the South African and Botswana intelligence services confirming the need for it. The change in position is due in part to the internal security situation,” the Eurasia Group said in a report released at the end of last week.

The South African government has deployed 25,000 troops to quell recent unrest in the provinces of KwaZulu Natal and Gauteng, where they are to remain until October.

But Pretoria’s change of position is still linked to concerns about SADC member states’ funding of the operation.

The sub-regional organisation initially budgeted the operation in northern Mozambique at $12 million. Still, cost estimates have since risen to $60 million, much on the back of expectations that the mission will now run until mid-2022.

“The economic impact of the unrest in South Africa and the additional expenditure by the South African state to address its socio-economic challenges make it unlikely that South Africa will meet its quota of a total 1,500 troops earmarked for the SADC force,” the analyst institute estimates.

On the other hand, other SADC member states “have so far shown no willingness to fill the financial and personnel gap left by South Africa, calling into question the effectiveness of the regional intervention,” Eurasia Group adds.

A small battalion of South African troops, made up of special forces and unrelated to the planned SADC force, was deployed in northern Mozambique on 22 July, but “it is unlikely” that these troops will have “a significant impact” on the evolution of the conflict, the risk assessment institution says.

“The SADC response is now likely to be significantly smaller, leaving Mozambique dependent on further troop deployments from Rwanda and potentially Angola,” the report adds.

Mozambique has requested assistance from Rwanda to carry out combat operations in Cabo Delgado, but “it is unlikely” that the security situation in the province will stabilise in the short term, “due to a lack of coordination between Mozambican and Rwandan troops, which has led to tensions between the two contingents,” the institution also stresses.

“So far, the Mozambican troops have not been willing to accept the direction of their Rwandan counterparts and have retreated on two separate occasions, leaving the Rwandan troops isolated,” illustrates the Eurasia Group.

This dynamic could be exacerbated by the arrival of troops from SADC, whose force has its own commander. Mozambique is creating a joint operational command, but no announcement has been made about who will lead this structure or where it will be based.

The operational challenges facing the joint military mission “will likely facilitate the insurgency’s southward spread towards the locations of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects,” the same source estimated.

According to Eurasia Group, attacks by insurgent groups “have followed each other since 20 July in the vicinity of Palma”, where fighting last broke out in April.

Palma, 30km from many of the LNG projects under development, has been the base for many foreign contractors. It is unlikely that any LNG projects in northern Mozambique will restart operations until the area is secure.

“The long-term security and stability of LNG projects in the region will benefit from training programmes for the Mozambican armed forces run by the United States, European Union, and Portugal. Given Total’s significant investment in the country, France could contribute additional resources to the training of the Mozambican security forces,” Eurasia Group concluded.

Armed groups have terrorised Cabo Delgado province since 2017, with some attacks claimed by the radical armed group Islamic State.

The attacks have so far claimed more than 3,100 lives, according to the ACLED conflict registration project, and are at the root of more than 817,000 displaced people, according to Mozambican authorities.