Surveys show an opposition win in Zimbabwe is possible

By Jonathan Moakes, HARARE zimbabwe 

Two surveys released in Zimbabwe recently should arm the opposition, Citizens Coalition for Change, with substantial confidence ahead of the harmonised elections scheduled for next month. 

Thousands of supporters of main opposition party Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) follow proceedings during the party's campaign launch rally in Gweru, Zimbabwe.

Last week, Afrobarometer (together with research partner MPOI) released the results of a survey conducted in May. Its main findings – that incumbent president Emmerson Mnangagwa would win 35% of the presidential vote compared to Nelson Chamisa's 27% – made international news.

Yet the following day, the Daily Maverick reported on a survey conducted in June by Elite Africa Research (EAR), the results of which are available on the company's website. It suggests something very different to Afrobarometer's research regarding the presidential vote: specifically that Mnangagwa on 39%, would trail behind Chamisa's 48% of the vote.  

These two polls are worth exploring in detail for how they align – and diverge – in their findings. Both surveys were conducted by institutions with strong credentials.

Afrobarometer has been conducting robust surveys for decades on the continent.

And, while relatively new, EAR's polling operations are led by the well-respected Oscar Mutinda, who previously headed up social research for Ipsos in Zambia and has years of experience conducting political surveys in sub-Saharan Africa. 

There are similarities between the two polls in many respects. They employed similar methodology with regards to sample size (2,400 for Afrobarometer and 2,000 for EAR) and their weighting of the population according to age, gender, and rural/urban setting. Both surveys were conducted face-to-face, and both yielded a margin of error of 2%. 

There was also consistency across the polls for some of the responses. Both sets of respondents were asked if they thought Zimbabwe was heading in the right or wrong direction: 65% of Afrobarometer's and 69% of EAR's respondents said the latter. 

How, then, to account for the striking differences in these polls regarding presidential voter intention? The answer lies in the proportion of respondents who comprise the 'Refused to answer' and 'Don't know' categories. Those who answered that in response to their voting intentions in a presidential election account for 11% of EAR’s poll. This figure is dwarfed by 32% of respondents answering the same in Afrobarometer’s poll. 

This is a stark difference, but it is easy to explain. Afrobarometer's respondents were selected at random from Zimbabwe’s adult population (inclusive of both registered and unregistered respondents). In contrast, EAR's respondents were solely registered voters (the interviewers presumably having screened out those unregistered).

This is one explanation for why there was greater voter certainty in EAR's poll, since those registered to vote tend to have an idea of how they will vote. It also has the added benefit of giving us a far better indication of actual voting patterns on election day. 

Another explanation is that 26% of Afrobarometer's respondents refused to answer the question regarding their voting intentions simply because they easily could. Because the percentage is so large, it can be assumed that the question was asked in such a way that it allowed people to refuse. This reluctance to speak openly about political affiliations is unsurprising given the prevalence of voter intimidation and electoral violence in the country currently.

From my conversations with research associates on the ground in Zimbabwe, it is generally acknowledged that at least 95% of respondents who refused to answer the voting intention question or answered 'don't know' in the Afrobarometer poll are undisclosed CCC supporters.

It is very likely, therefore, that the majority of Afrobarometer's 32% who refused to answer the presidential voting intentions question, or said they did not know, are supporting the opposition candidate, Nelson Chamisa.  

It would align almost exactly with the findings of a poll on Zimbabwe's voting intention that SABI Strategy Group conducted on behalf of the Brenthurst Foundation in January 2023. There, we found Chamisa was squarely in the lead with 53% of the vote, comfortably beating Mnangagwa with 40%. This was after undecideds were proportionately allocated.

When properly contextualised and bolstered by the finding of SABI’s January poll, the Afrobarometer and EAR polls should not be seen as two surveys with conflicting results. Instead, if we account for the discrepancies in methodology, we are led to the same conclusion as the findings from SABI and EAR's polls. 

The results of all three polls suggest fairly conclusively that Nelson Chamisa and the CCC are on track to win Zimbabwe's election in August, should the vote be free and fair. The most important implication of these findings for Chamisa and his party is that their focus over the next month should be to defend and protect the vote. 

The results of these polls are also highly significant for the international community of interested stakeholders, especially the South African government.

We now have evidence that an opposition victory in Zimbabwe is not only possible but probable. The important thing now is for stakeholders to help ensure that the results reported by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) are the right results.

And, when the findings of these surveys are repeated in reality in the country as a whole in August, it is imperative that the regional community supports the peaceful transition of power.