By Gordon Corera
Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to buy time while he works out how to deal with Yevgeny Prighozin, says the director of the CIA.
Mr Prigozhin is the head of
the Wagner mercenary group who led a mutiny in Russia a month ago.
That mutiny exposed significant
weaknesses in the system of power Putin has built, CIA head William Burns said.
He told the Aspen Security
Forum that Russia's leader may still seek retribution against Mr Prigozhin.
"What we are seeing is a
very complicated dance," the CIA chief said on Thursday.
Mr Prigozhin has moved around
but had been in the Belarus capital of Minsk recently as well as Russia, he
said when asked about a recent video
apparently showing the Wagner boss in Belarus.
Mr Putin is likely to be
trying to buy time as he works out how best to deal with the leader of the
Wagner group, Mr Burns added.
That mercenary group still has
value for Russia's leadership in places like Africa, Libya and Syria and so it
was likely that Mr Putin would try and separate the group from its leader.
And the CIA chief said that Mr
Putin may wait to exact revenge.
"Putin is someone who
generally thinks that revenge is a dish best served cold," Mr Burns said.
"In my experience, Putin is the ultimate apostle of payback so I would be
surprised if Prigozhin escapes further retribution."
Earlier this month, US
President Joe Biden suggested there was a risk the Wagner boss could be
poisoned.
"If I were him I'd be
careful what I ate. I'd keep my eye on my menu," the president quipped.
The CIA director echoed that
line saying: "If I were Prigozhin, I wouldn't fire my food taster."
The intelligence agency did
indeed have advance knowledge of the mutiny, Mr Burns said, confirming previous
reports.
A senior Russian army general,
Sergei Surovikin, who was reported to have known about the Wagner mutiny in
advance, also does not currently have "freedom of movement", the CIA
chief added.
William Burns confirmed the
CIA had advanced knowledge of the mutiny
The mutiny was the most direct
assault Mr Putin has seen in his 23 years in power, including by directly
challenging the Kremlin's justification for the war in Ukraine, with Mr
Prigozhin saying it had been built on lies, Mr Burns said.
He added that what was most
remarkable was that Russia's leader felt compelled to do a deal with a man who
used to be his caterer, the CIA chief said.
Mr Prigozhin is often referred
to as "Putin's chef" as he first came to prominence after providing
catering services to Mr Putin and the military before founding the Wagner
group.
Mr Putin has projected an
image of himself as the arbiter of order in Russia, and so the 36 hours of the
mutiny will have left many in the country with the question of "whether
the emperor had no clothes or at least why is it taking him so long to get
dressed", Mr Burns said.
This would have resurrected
deeper questions in the Russian elite about Mr Putin's judgement, which have
been there since his decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in
February 2022.
If Ukraine makes further
advances on the battlefield, then that could lead more Russians to pay
attention to Mr Prigozhin's critique of the war, he said.
It should not come as surprise
that Ukraine's counter-offensive was proving a "hard slog", the CIA
head said, given that offence was harder than defence and the Russians had
months to prepare.
"It is going to take time
and it is not going to be easy to make progress. I am however an
optimist," Mr Burns said.
He also said that there were
signs that Russia might be considering a false flag operation by attacking
shipping in the Black Sea and then blaming it on the Ukrainians.
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