By The Conversation
Mercenaries have been a fixture in Africa since the second half of the 20th century. They have been used to protect incumbent leaders or install new ones in conflict zones.
Their offering – guns for hire
– has remained essentially the same for decades. However, they’ve recently
undergone an evolution that forces countries to look more closely at their
roles – which range from technical advisers to frontline combatants.
Today, mercenaries are
employed to advance
states’ foreign policy. And Moscow is leading the way.
Libya, Sudan, Mozambique, the
Central African Republic, Mali and the Democratic Republic of Congo have
offered lucrative natural resource contracts and a landing pad for the return
of Russia to Africa. Russia first gained influence on the continent during
the Cold War era of
the late 1940s when African states picked sides in the battle between the west
and the Soviet Union.
Moscow still considers Africa
a region where it can project power – and profit from abundant natural
resources. Russia’s strategy this time is rooted more in profit-seeking than
ideology. It’s about cost efficiency and crude realpolitik, which pays little
attention to morals or ethics.
While the Russian army is
bogged down in a war
with Ukraine, mercenary outfits like the Wagner Group – a quasi-private
military company – are a placeholder for Moscow’s
geopolitical interests in Africa.
Under President Vladimir Putin
(1999-2008, and from 2012 to present), Russian
private military companies and mercenaries have become an essential
component of Russian foreign policy.
In Africa, the Wagner Group
has found a fertile ecosystem to spread Russian influence.
Over the last seven years,
while researching on Chinese private
security companies in Africa, I have also mapped the evolution of mercenaries
and private military companies from Russia and Turkey across
the region. In my view, in Africa, Russia has used the Wagner Group to protect
influential leaders and advance Moscow’s geopolitical agenda.
The group helps secure mega
investments and intervenes in crisis-ridden hotspots, often without regard for
civilian losses. This profoundly affects the continent’s stability.
Since Putin took power in
2012, the Russian ministry of defence has operated without independent
parliamentary oversight.
Individual relationships have
superseded military and intelligence bureaucracy. Private networks have allowed
Putin’s inner circle to work in the shadows, and promote the use of
paramilitary groups and mercenary outfits.
The Wagner Group is believed
to have been set up by retired colonel Dmitri Utkin –
providing a link between the group and Russia’s military intelligence service.
Details of its origins are obscure, but the outfit first hit international
headlines in 2014 after Russia’s invasion
of Crimea, eastern Ukraine.
The Wagner Group is thought to
be financed by Yevgeny
Prigozhin, a catering magnate turned notorious commander.
For years, the Wagner Group
denied any official links to the Kremlin, the
seat of Russian power. However, Prigozhin came out in the open in social
media exchanges between himself and Russia’s top military officials.
Considering the Kremlin’s
penchant for military deception, however, Prigozhin could be an actor in the
story. He may not necessarily hold the leading role.
Sergey
Sukhankin researches Russian private military companies. He says Prigozhin
is not an oligarch (an extremely wealthy Russian with political and social
sway) able to create his own private army.
He likely represents another
layer of obfuscation between Wagner and its absolute puppet master.
From Mali to Sudan, the Wagner
Group benefits from a lucrative combination: political instability, abundant
natural resources and low-intensity armed opposition.
In Sudan in
2017, the Wagner Group provided security and logistical support to protect
former president Omar al-Bashir. In exchange, Russian businesses secured
diamond mining concessions.
In the Central
African Republic, which has rich diamond and gold deposits, the group began
supporting the government’s battle against rebel groups in 2017. In exchange,
Russian advisers have gained the state’s ear on political and economic matters.
In gas-rich Mozambique,
the Wagner Group supported government forces fighting insurgents in the
country’s north. A month before Wagner’s deployment in September 2019,
Mozambique signed agreements on mineral resources, energy and defence with
Russia.
In Mali in
2021, the government contracted the Wagner Group to fight extremism in the
Sahel. Russia’s foreign affairs minister, Sergei
Lavrov, confirmed this.
But reports of
Russian mercenaries’ violence towards non-combatants keep growing.
UN experts have called for investigations into
the group’s role in the massacre of several hundred civilians in Mali in March
2022. In January 2023, the US labelled Wagner a criminal
organisation.
The group’s growing footprint
in Africa has been met by tighter sanctions against its leaders and their
companies. The US and European
Union have led the charge. Sixteen European nations, including France,
the UK and Germany, have cited the Russian
government’s involvement in providing material support in Wagner
Group’s deployment in Mali.
Despite the international
uproar, sanctions have limited
impact. It’s likely that Russian mercenaries will continue to increase
their footprint in Africa.
In my view, the Wagner Group’s
growing presence in Africa illustrates that “manageable chaos” is the final
goal.
This means maintaining
insecurity and profiting from the ongoing instability via exploitative
relationships with multiple African governments.
The Kremlin’s continued
reliance on the Wagner Group sheds light on the strategic
importance of Africa in Russia’s foreign policy. As Moscow seeks to
tap into Africa’s natural resources and challenge western influence, it’s found
a receptive audience among states dissatisfied with the west’s track record.
The history of mercenary
activity in Africa serves as a cautionary tale, however.
The exploitation of
“manageable chaos” for profit leads to resource depletion, corruption, human
rights abuses and impaired long-term development. Uncovering the true security
capabilities of these mercenary outfits is a necessary step towards
accountability and legitimacy.
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