BERLIN, German
Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy is traveling to Berlin for a meeting with German
Chancellor Olaf
Scholz.
Zelenskyy is also expected to
take part in the Munich
Security Conference starting on Friday, which will be attended by
some 40 heads of state and government as well as numerous military experts.
It is a challenging moment for
Ukraine's armed forces in their defensive
struggle against Russia: Ammunition is in short supply, and Russia is
exerting increasing pressure, particularly along the eastern front.
Ukrainian soldiers are now
having to ration artillery shells. The shortage of supplies coming from the
approximately 50 supporting nations that are — for the time being — still led
by the United States will also be a topic in Munich, where US Vice President Kamala Harris is
also expected to attend.
Meanwhile, the US Senate,
where President Joe
Biden's Democrats have a narrow majority, has approved new military aid
for Ukraine to the tune of $60 billion (€56 billion). But it is uncertain
whether the package will also get a majority in the second chamber, the House
of Representatives. Republicans remain in the majority there, and supporters of
Donald Trump are particularly keen to block the aid package.
It is mainly the lack of
ammunition coming from the US that is being felt on the front lines in Ukraine.
According to reports from war analysts, the ratio of artillery ammunition in
eastern and southern Ukraine is five Russian shells to one Ukrainian shell.
"The situation on the
front is precarious," said military analyst Markus Reisner in an interview
with DW. The senior colonel in the Austrian army has been observing the war in
Ukraine since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion on February 24,
2022.
Reisner says he has identified
"at least 15 places" where the Russian army is currently gaining
ground. "In the last few weeks, this has been up to six kilometers (3.7
miles) of terrain in some cases but only half a kilometer in others,"
says Reisner.
He explains that this is
mainly because Ukraine has a dwindling amount of ammunition and artillery
ammunition while Russia is taking advantage of its greater artillery power.
Reisner says he expects
Russia's war against Ukraine to "reach a critical point this year."
Europe and the nations supporting Ukraine may find themselves in a situation in
which they might have to stand by as Ukraine falls.
During his visit to Biden in
Washington in February, the German chancellor warned: "We cannot beat
around the bush: On the question of whether Ukraine will be able to defend
itself, assistance from the United States is indispensable."
Security expert Gustav Gressel
from the Berlin think tank ECFR (European Council on Foreign Relations) also
recently made it clear just how difficult the situation is for Ukraine after
the failed counteroffensive of 2023. Gressel even predicted that "2024
will be the most challenging time for Ukraine since the first two months of the
full-scale invasion."
Kyiv has been trying to
significantly increase its own arms production since mid-2023. There is an
"ambitious program not only to resurrect Ukraine's pre-war arms industry
but even to surpass it with the assistance of Western companies," writes
Gressel.
In January, the Ukrainian
president traveled to the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania,
which, relative to their population and gross national product, provide Ukraine
with the most military equipment.
Following Zelenskyy's meeting
with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, both announced that Lithuania would
continue to support Ukraine militarily. This includes the
"cooperation of defense industries, including joint ventures, localizing
production in Ukraine, and promoting information exchange on defense-related
research and development efforts."
The Polish government also
plans to support arms production in Ukraine. The German arms manufacturer
Rheinmetall has also previously announced such cooperation. But this, too, will
take time to set up.
Shortly before Zelenskyy set
off for Germany, the head of the intelligence service in Norway, the
northernmost member of NATO, presented the country's annual security report.
In it, Vice-Admiral Nils
Andreas Stensones wrote that Russia is gaining ground in Ukraine. Although
"Ukraine continues to show enormous fighting spirit, the country is
dependent on the support of the West to defend itself and regain the
initiative."
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