US-IRAN SHOWDOWN LOOMS LARGE IN IRAQ

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates

American officials have confirmed that additional deployments of air defence systems to protect key American military bases in Iraq are now operational. The moves come as tensions between the US and regional rival Iran spike again following a growing spate of rocket attacks in Iraq over the past two months.

Unresolved issues. US Marine Corps General Kenneth McKenzie Jr., commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), leaves after briefing the media last March on operations in the CENTCOM area of responsibility in the wake of the attacks in Iraq.

According to reports, Patriot missile launchers and other short-range systems have been positioned at the Al-Asad Airbase as well as rocket defence systems at Camp Taji near Erbil in the Kurdish north.

Al-Asad Airbase was the target of Iran’s retaliatory ballistic missile strikes in January after an American drone killed Iran’s most important military official, Major-General Qassem Soleimani, and the leader of an allied Iraqi militia, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Camp Taji has served over the years as one of the most important and heavily fortified American military bases in the region.

Thousands of American troops stationed in Iraq have faced a continuous threat from rocket and artillery attacks by what the US considers Iran-sponsored militias. Iran and its allies in Iraq are said to have stepped up efforts to squeeze the American military presence in Iraq with the ultimate goal of forcing a complete withdrawal.

Kata’ib Hezbollah, which was led by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, is one of Iraq’s most powerful militias and is blamed for a number of the recent low-level rocket attacks.

Despite the imminence of the threat and Washington’s fears of a larger strike directed by Tehran, the US has been able to position air defence reinforcements only gradually as it contended in recent weeks with the political fallout from its strikes on January 2 that killed Soleimani and al-Muhandis.

Widespread protests in Iraq had surfaced calling for the expulsion of US forces, and mainstream Iraqi politicians pushed Washington and Tehran to de-escalate to ensure their country did not become a battleground between the two rivals.

Iraq is attempting to end months of political paralysis triggered by youth-led protests against corruption and foreign interference, in which Iran was singled out, that were exacerbated by the unprecedented US-Iran face-off. Iraq is politically divided on its ties with both the US and Iran as well as the role of both countries in the years ahead.

Mustafa Kadhimi, Iraq’s intelligence chief, is the third person to be named prime minister-designate in 10 weeks, as the country remains in political deadlock and is run by a caretaker government. An earlier frontrunner for PM, Adnan al-Zurfi, was forced to drop out after intense opposition from Iran-aligned groups that charged him with being an “American agent.”

The American military’s long-term presence in Iraq has sparked political controversy since the American-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein, although in recent years its focus has changed to defeating ISIS and training Iraqi armed forces.

COVID-19 has impacted the activities and engagement of US forces in Iraq, particularly with its training mission, but the past few months have also seen a gradual drawdown. High-tempo operations against ISIS drew to a close last year but a reconfiguration of the US presence has been triggered by shifting developments after the strike on Soleimani.

US officials have worked to overcome key differences with Iraqi leaders after coming closer than ever to a direct military confrontation with Iran, which would have engulfed Iraq’s biggest cities. The US recently handed back control of four Iraqi bases to Baghdad, including al-Qaim Airbase, Qayyarah Airfield, K1 Airbase and Al Taqaddum Airbase.

The Pentagon has worked to consolidate a reduced American troop presence in the country around larger military bases that can be better protected from air attacks with Patriots and other defence systems for short-range threats known as C-RAM.

Patriot systems, which include radar to track threats, launchers to intercept them, command and control stations and relevant power systems, provide ground-based air defence against threats such as cruise and ballistic missiles, aircraft and large drones. Smaller, short-range threats such as rockets, heavy artillery and mortar are defended against using C-RAM.

There are around 6,000 American troops in Iraq, down from closer to 8,000 a few months ago, but also thousands of full-time civilian personnel and contractors supporting US military operations in the wider area. Key bases and installations housing US forces and personnel, including in Camp Taji, Baghdad’s Green Zone and other sensitive locations such as oil-related facilities with American or foreign workers, have faced repeated rocket attacks.

American military leaders believe Iran stood down its missiles after realising a direct military confrontation could be averted following Soleimani’s killing, but Tehran has since intensified efforts to harass or attack via proxies, which allows some degree of deniability.

In recent days, fast boats operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) were able to come within metres of US warships near the Strait of Hormuz. Incidents like this, which can lead to miscalculation and rapid escalation, had become less frequent with the adoption of the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, but now appear to be restarting.

US President Donald Trump recently wrote on Twitter that “Iran will pay a very heavy price, indeed!” after new intelligence surfaced suggesting Tehran could be planning larger strikes on American targets in Iraq. Although a direct confrontation appears unlikely, the US-Iran standoff remains volatile and the White House is soon expected to veto a bipartisan congressional effort to curtail Trump’s ability to authorise military operations against Iran.

US-Iran tensions were reignited after Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in 2018 and then re-imposed crippling economic sanctions against Iran. The game-changer to America’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran came in January after strikes on the convoy of Soleimani at Baghdad airport.