BENGHAZI,
Libya
Libya’s
combatants are readying for a long conflict, as foreign weapons flood in,
eastern factions close oil ports and rival alliances wrangle over revenues from
Africa’s largest petroleum reserves.
The moves signal deepening animosity in a war that
could worsen regional instability and swell the flow of migrants from the
Middle East and Africa almost a decade after Muammar Gaddafi’s fall in 2011.
From his large villa in Libya’s east, tribal leader
Sanoussi al-Zwai sees plenty more trouble ahead for the huge country, for years
contested by two rival authorities in the east and west.
He is an ally of Commander Khalifa Haftar, whose
self-styled Libya National Army (LNA) also has the support of Egypt, the United
Arab Emirates (UAE), Jordan and Russian mercenaries as it tries to capture the
capital Tripoli.
Zwai’s tribe backs the oil port blockade, resisting
calls by the United States and the United Nations to restart flows of Libya’s
vital income source, which is run by Haftar’s foe, the internationally
recognized Government of National Accord (GNA).
Zwai’s price for unlocking the ports is for the
GNA, based 1,000 km (620 miles) away in Tripoli, to funnel more income to his
people. If the GNA resists, he suggests there could be worse to come.
“We are not happy with what is happening now, but
we have ways to escalate if the international community does not listen to us,”
said Zwai, leader of a tribe living near eastern oil facilities.
“There will be a major escalation. We have other
things (means) to use at the time. If it comes to it, the world knows what
escalation is,” he told Reuters in the main eastern city of Benghazi, without
saying what any escalation would involve.
The standoff over oil is only one of several
factors that could prolong the almost year-long conflict over the capital,
where the GNA last month secured military backing from Turkey including
Turkish-backed fighters from Syria.
The combatants are racing to rearm, receiving shipments
both before and after foreign backers agreed to enforce a truce at a summit in
Germany in January. The inflow of advanced artillery and fighters and advisers
breaches pledges made in Berlin to respect an arms embargo, diplomats say.
On Thursday, the U.N. Security Council called for a
ceasefire but Russia, a Haftar backer, abstained from the vote. Diplomats took
this as sign that Moscow might not be committed to a U.N.-led political
mediation.
Haftar’s forces and their foreign backers have
stopped fighter jet strikes on the capital. But Western diplomats and experts
say this is not due to a genuine desire for peace but because of better air
defenses supplied by Turkey.
Security forces stand guard during a celebration of the 9th anniversary of the revolution against former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi at Martyrs' Square in Tripoli, Libya February 17, 2020. |
Until Turkey’s intervention, Tripoli officials had
started to panic they might lose the capital, the diplomats said.
Instead, Syrian fighters sent by Turkey have helped
reverse small LNA gains, restoring frontlines to roughly where they settled
just after the LNA attack began in April 2019.
Estimates from diplomats in Turkey about the number
of Syrian fighters vary from 1,500 to 3,000, while the number of Turkish troops
was seen at between 200 to 500, including Special Forces, conventional troops
and drone operators.
“Both sides are preparing for the next battle,”
said a Western diplomat.
Diplomacy repeatedly founders on mutual suspicions.
“Each time we have any kind of agreement ... we
always saw the same pattern,” said Taher el-Sonni, the GNA ambassador to the
U.N. “It’s more like gaining time, then (Haftar decides to) just use force.”
Turkey has sent heavy trucks by sea, while the UAE
flew in 89 shipments totaling 4,680 metric tons between Jan 12 and Feb 16,
according flight tracking data and a security source. The UAE did not
immediately respond to a request for comment.
Newly-shipped big guns are already making their
presence felt, as shelling from long-range artillery blamed on the LNA hit the
city center for the first time this week.
Away from the Tripoli battle, which has displaced
at least 150,000 people, the conflict has shifted to the control of oil wealth.
Forces allied to Haftar have kept the ports shut for a month, causing losses of
some $1.4 billion.
The blockade echoes complaints of neglect going
back to Gaddafi, who punished the east for dissent in his long rule.
The National Oil Corporation (NOC), which says it
is neutral and deals with all sides in the conflict, blames the LNA for
directly ordering the shutdown.
Pressure from international powers and the United
Nations has so far failed to persuade Haftar to reopen the ports and the
southern El Sharara oilfield, Libya’s largest. The veteran commander has even
won some new recognition from Western countries that oil revenues need to be
distributed fairly.
A senior U.S. diplomat said it was important that
oil revenues are distributed equally, something he said should be discussed in
U.N.-led intra-Libyan economic talks, part of a mediation to overcome
divisions.
Neither side discloses how much it spends on the
conflict.
Diplomats say the Tripoli government is less
dependent on oil than before, as up to a third of the budget is covered by a
fee it levies on all private transactions involving hard currency. Some of the
Syrian fighters sent by Turkey are paid directly by Tripoli, diplomats say.
A stalemate looms. On Friday Haftar dashed hopes of
a truce, saying there would be no peace until “militias” holding Tripoli had
been defeated. For its part, Tripoli demands the LNA pull back 1,000 km (620
miles) east, something Haftar rejects.
“We don’t expect to reach a ceasefire unless these
troops (LNA) go back where they came from,” said GNA Interior Minister Fathi
Bashagha. - Reuters
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