NAIROBI, Kenya
The war in northern
Ethiopia is moving south, with rebel groups claiming strategic wins over
government forces and threatening to advance on Addis Ababa. A man holds a candle during a memorial service for the victims of the Tigray conflict organized by the city administration, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on November 3, 2021
These are the main
actors in a year-long conflict that has killed thousands and pushed many more
into famine:
Ethiopia's national
military is one of the biggest standing armed forces in Africa, with an
estimated 140,000 personnel.
Its air force has
fighter jets and armed drones, which have stepped up raids over Tigray in
recent weeks.
The ENDF has
considerable battle experience, fighting wars with Eritrea, quelling rebellions
and confronting Islamist militants in Somalia.
Prime Minister Abiy
Ahmed sent the ENDF into Tigray after accusing its former rulers, the Tigray
People's Liberation Front (TPLF), of orchestrating attacks on federal army
camps.
The ENDF captured
Tigray's capital Mekele in a few weeks and Abiy declared victory.
But in June, the rebels
retook Mekele and pushed into the neighbouring regions of Afar and
Amhara.
The military has
offered no figures of its own casualties.
The TPLF dominated the
political alliance that ruled Ethiopia for nearly 30 years until
anti-government protests swept Abiy to power in 2018.
At the outset of
fighting the TPLF had a large paramilitary force and well-trained local militia
possibly numbering 250,000 men in total, the International Crisis Group (ICG)
says.
They were
battle-hardened, having led the struggle that toppled Ethiopia's autocratic
regime in 1991 and fighting a brutal border war with Eritrea.
Abiy's government has
accused the rebels of atrocities including massacres and conscripting and
drugging child soldiers.
In June, the TPLF
returned in triumph to Mekele, parading thousands of bedraggled federal
soldiers through the streets.
In late October, in a
fresh offensive, they claimed control of Dessie and Kombolcha, two cities just
400 kilometres (250 miles) north of Addis Ababa.
Its leaders say their
goals are to deny Abiy's forces the chance to return to Tigray, and to break
what the UN calls a de facto aid blockade.
TPLF spokesman Getachew
Reda has not ruled out marching on Addis Ababa "if that's what it takes to
break the siege on Tigray."
The Oromo Liberation
Army (OLA), an insurgent group bent on overthrowing Abiy, has linked up with
the TPLF on the battlefield and claims control of territory in Amhara and
Oromia, including near Addis Ababa.
This means it could
potentially disrupt supply routes to the capital. A spokesman for the OLA said
on November 3 that Addis Ababa could fall within "months if not
weeks".
Ethiopia declared the
TPLF and OLA terrorist organisations in May, helping nudge the historic foes
towards an unlikely military pact against their common enemy.
The OLA broke off from
the Oromo Liberation Front, an opposition party that spent years in exile but
was allowed to return to Ethiopia after Abiy took office.
Believed to number in
the low thousands, it is fighting for self-determination for the Oromo,
Ethiopia's largest ethnic group.
OLA combatants have
longstanding grievances with ethnic Amharas, and Abiy's government has accused
the OLA of massacres.
Regular and irregular
combatants from Amhara have been a major ally of government forces since the
war began.
These militias occupied
areas of southern Tigray and seized the region's fertile west, which ethnic
Amharas consider part of their homeland.
Over the last year,
ethnic Amharas have been returning to western Tigray and occupying abandoned
homes and farmland in a state-backed campaign the United States has described
as "ethnic cleansing".
Amharas claim western
Tigray was stolen from them decades ago when the TPLF ruled the country.
Their involvement in
the conflict has fanned ethnic hostilities.
As the TPLF has
advanced further into the region, Amhara leaders have warned their very
existence is at stake and urged locals to join the fight.
Tigray borders Eritrea,
whose leader Isaias Afwerki is close to Abiy and a sworn enemy of the TPLF
which ruled Ethiopia when both countries fought their border war.
For months, Addis Ababa
and Asmara flatly denied the presence of Eritrean troops in Tigray, despite
persistent eyewitness testimony to the contrary.
Abiy finally
acknowledged their presence in March and said their departure was imminent.
But they remain in
Tigray and it is unclear whether Abiy could make them leave -- or afford to let
them go.
All sides in the war
have been accused of atrocities but the role of Eritrean forces in mass rape
and murder has been well documented.
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