MAPUTO, Mozambique
Consultancy NKC African Economics has deemed that the presence of Rwandan troops in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province “appears to have contributed positively to the fighting so far”.
“Reaching
out to Rwanda for assistance before its regional partners was a curious move,
but the presence of the Rwandan Army in the province appears to have
contributed positively to the fighting so far,” the analysts wrote in a note
consulted by Lusa.
The
consultancy, the African branch of Oxford Economics, said that Mozambican
President Filipe Nyusi, “was under renewed pressure to control the insurgency”
after the March attacks, which led French energy giant Total to suspend its
liquefied natural gas project.
According to
the authorities, Rwanda’s contingent of 1,000 soldiers and police have shot 14
insurgents.
“After many delays, the SADC [Southern African Development Community] is finally deploying troops in Cabo Delgado”.
Botswana and
South Africa will send troops. In the case of the latter, NKC African Economics
said its size “exceeds that of all other foreign armies in Cabo Delgado,” which
“demonstrates the country’s intention to dominate force operations.
The
consultancy hopes that “competition between forces” will not hinder the
achievement of peace, as “the expansion of the insurgency beyond Mozambique’s
borders is a possibility”.
Similarly,
the analysts consider that stability in Cabo delgado cannot be achieved with “a
mission based solely on military control”.
“It is one of the poorest regions in one of the poorest countries and, as we have said before, the deployment must be complemented by socio-economic support. We do not believe that a sustainable level of stability can be achieved until the poverty patterns of the residents are addressed,” they concluded.
Armed groups
have terrorized Cabo Delgado province since 2017, with some attacks claimed by
the extremist group Islamic State.
There are
more than 3,100 deaths, according to the ACLED conflict registration project,
and more than 817,000 displaced people, according to Mozambican authorities.
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