KYIV, Ukraine
Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is in Ukraine on Friday to hold talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky. The trip comes just weeks after he met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
The visit is significant
because Kyiv and some Western capitals had reacted sharply to Mr Modi’s
visit to the Russian capital in July.
Mr Zelensky was particularly
critical, saying he was “disappointed to see the leader of the world's largest
democracy hug the world's most bloody criminal in Moscow”.
So, is Mr Modi visiting Kyiv
to placate Mr Zelensky and other Western leaders?
Not entirely.
It’s not surprising to see
India balance its relations between two competing nations or blocs. The
country’s famed non-alignment approach to geopolitics has served it well for
decades.
Friday's visit - the first by
an Indian prime minister to Ukraine - is more about signalling that while India
will continue to have strong relations with Russia, it will still work closely
with the West.
Michael Kugelman, director of
the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre think-tank in Washington, says
the trip will further reassert India’s strategic autonomy.
“India isn’t in the business
of placating Western powers, or anyone for that matter. It’s a trip meant to
advance Indian interests, by reasserting friendship with Kyiv and conveying its
concerns about the continuing war,” he says.
However, the timing of the
visit does reflect that Indian diplomats have taken onboard the sharp reactions
from the US to Mr Modi's Moscow visit.
India has refrained
from directly criticising Russia over the war, much to the annoyance
of Western powers.
Delhi, however, has often
spoken about the importance of respecting territorial integrity and sovereignty
of nations. It has continuously pushed for diplomacy and dialogue to end the
war.
Mr Modi’s Moscow visit in July
came hours after Russian bombing killed at least 41 people in Ukraine,
including at a children's hospital in Kyiv, sparking a global outcry.
The Indian PM said the death
of children was painful and terrifying but stopped short of blaming Russia.
Mr Modi is not likely to
deviate from this stance during his visit to Kyiv. The US and other Western
nations have grown to accept Delhi’s stand, given India’s time-tested
relationship with Moscow and its reliance on Russian military equipment.
India, the world’s largest
importer of arms, has diversified its defence import portfolio and also grown
domestic manufacturing in recent years but it still buys more than 50% of its
defence equipment from Russia.
India has also increased its
oil imports from Russia, taking advantage of cheaper prices offered by Moscow -
Russia was the top oil supplier to India last year.
The US and its allies have
often implored India to take a clearer stand on the war but they have also
refrained from applying harsh sanctions or pressure.
The West also sees India as a
counterbalance to China and doesn’t want to upset that dynamic. India, now the
fifth largest economy in the world, is also a growing market for business.
Mr Kugelman says the West will
welcome the visit and see it as Delhi’s willingness to engage with all sides.
“Mr Modi has a strong
incentive to signal that it’s not leaning so close to Moscow that there’s
nothing to salvage with Kyiv,” he says.
This is important because
India wants to keep growing its relations with the West, particularly with the
US, and wouldn't want to upset the momentum. Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador
to India, recently said the relationship should not be "taken for granted".
India also needs the West as
China, its Asian rival, and Russia have forged close ties in recent years.
While Delhi has long viewed
Moscow as a power that can put pressure on an assertive China when needed, it
can't be taken for granted.
Meanwhile, many media
commentators have spoken about the possibility of Mr Modi positioning himself
as a peacemaker, given India’s close relations with both Moscow and the West.
But it’s unlikely that he will
turn up with a peace plan.
“Is India really up to it, and
are the conditions right? India doesn’t like other countries trying to mediate
in its own issues, chief among them Kashmir. And I don’t think Mr Modi would
formally offer mediation unless both Russia and Ukraine want it. And at this
point, I don’t think they do,” Mr Kugelman adds.
Ukraine, however, will still
welcome Mr Modi’s visit and see it as an opportunity to engage with a close
ally of Moscow, something it hasn’t done much since the war began.
Mr Zelensky, though, is
unlikely to hold back his criticism of Mr Putin in front of the Indian PM. Mr
Modi can live with that as he has faced such situations many times in other
Western capitals.
Moscow is not likely to react
to the visit as it has also been making concessions for Delhi’s multilateral
approach to geopolitics.
But beyond reasserting its
non-alignment policy, Delhi also has bigger goals from this visit.
India has been ramping up
engagement with Europe in the past decade, particularly with the underserved
regions in Central and Eastern Europe.
Delhi wants to keep
consolidating its relations with the big four - the UK, Italy, Germany and
France - but also wants to boost engagement with other countries in Europe.
Mr Modi is also visiting
Poland on this trip - the first Indian PM to visit the country in 45 years. He
also became the first Indian prime minister to visit Austria in 41 years in
July.
Analysts say that this signals
India’s growing understanding that Central European nations will play a bigger
role in geopolitics in the future and strong relations with them will serve
Delhi well.
The Indian government has also
revived trade deal negotiations with Europe. It has signed a trade and
investment deal with the European Free Trade Association, which is the
intergovernmental organisation of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and
Switzerland.
So, while there will be a lot
of focus on the war during his visit, Indian diplomats are likely to stay
focused on the bigger goal.
“Central and Eastern Europe
now have greater agency in writing their own destiny and reshaping regional
geopolitics. Mr Modi’s visit to Warsaw and Kyiv is about recognising that
momentous change at the heart of Europe and deepening bilateral political, economic
and security ties with the Central European states,” foreign policy analyst C
Raja Mohan told reporters.
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