WARSAW, Poland
Polish opposition leader
Donald Tusk declared the beginning of a new era for his country after
opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday’s parliamentary
election to oust the governing nationalist conservative party.Donald Tusk, leader of Poland's largest opposition grouping Civic Coalition (KO), gestures after the exit poll results are announced in Warsaw on October 15, 2023.
That party, Law and Justice,
has bickered with allies and faced accusations of eroding rule of law at home
in its eight years in power. It appeared that voters were mobilized like never
before, voting in even greater numbers than when the nation ousted the
communist authorities in 1989.
Exit poll results pegged it at
a record 72.9 percent. In some places people were still in line when polling
officially closed, but all were allowed to vote.
If the result predicted by the
exit poll holds, Law and Justice won but also lost. It got more seats than any
other party but fewer than in the previous election and not enough to be able
to lead a government that can pass laws in the legislature.
The Ipsos exit poll suggested
that Law and Justice obtained 200 seats. Its potential partner, the far-right
Confederation got 12 seats, a showing the party acknowledged was a defeat.
It also showed that three
opposition parties have likely won a combined 248 seats in the 460-seat lower
house of parliament, the Sejm. The largest of the groups is Civic Coalition,
led by Tusk, a former prime minister and former European Union president. It
won 31.6 percent of votes, the exit poll said.
“I have been a politician for
many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking
seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them
from power,” Tusk told his cheering supporters.
“This result might still be
better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is
end of Law and Justice rule,” Tusk added.
Law and Justice leader
Jaroslaw Kaczynski acknowledged the ambiguous result. He told supporters at his
headquarters that his party’s result, at nearly 37 percent of the vote,
according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most
votes for three parliamentary elections in a row.
“We must have hope and we must
also know that regardless of whether we are in power or in the opposition, we
will implement this (political) project in various ways and we will not allow
Poland to be betrayed,” Kaczynski said.
If the result holds, and Law and Justice is the single party with the most
seats, then it would most likely get the first chance to try to build a
government.
It falls to President Andrzej
Duda, who is an ally of Law and Justice, to tap a party to try to form a
government.
Prime Minister Mateusz
Morawiecki said on Polsat News that Duda “will entrust the mission of forming
the government to the winning party and in this first step we will certainly
try to build a parliamentary majority.”
The question arose whether it
would obtain the new parliament’s approval.
Three opposition parties,
Tusk’s Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but
with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties
with the European Union.
Wlodzimierz Czarzasty, a
leader of the Left party, vowed to work with the others to “create a
democratic, strong, reasonable and predictable government.”
Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz,
the head of election campaign for Third Way, called it a “huge day for our
democracy.”
Votes were still being counted
and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by
Tuesday morning.
The high turnout also extended
the count of Ipsos’ late poll, based on findings from 50 percent of the voting
stations, which was still not published in the early hours of Monday.
At stake in the election were
the health of the nation’s constitutional order, its legal stance on LGBTQ+
rights and abortion, and the foreign alliances of a country that has been a
crucial ally to Ukraine after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
LGBTQ+ rights activist Bart
Staszewski called it the end of a “nightmare” for himself as a gay man and
others.
“This is just the beginning of
reclaiming of our country. The fight is ahead but we are breathing fresh air
today,” Staszewski said.
Environmental activist Dominika Lasota was emotional with relief, saying “we
have our future.”
Law and Justice has eroded
checks and balances to gain more control over state institutions, including the
courts, public media and the electoral process itself.
During the campaign many Poles
described the vote as the most important one since 1989, when a new democracy
was born after decades of communism. Turnout then was 63 percent.
Despite many uncertainties
ahead, what appeared certain was that support for the governing party has
shrunk since the last election in 2019 when it won nearly 44 percent of the
vote, its popularity dented by high inflation, allegations of cronyism and
bickering with European allies.
There is a high level of state
ownership in the Polish economy, and the governing party has built up a system
of patronage, handing out thousands of jobs and contracts to its loyalists.
A political change could open
the way for the EU to release billions of euros in funding that has been
withheld over what the EU viewed as democratic erosion.
Piotr Buras, of the European
Council of Foreign Relations, said the opposition had gained from “growing
fatigue” with the government among Poles, “beyond the groups usually supporting
the liberals.”
The fate of Poland’s
relationship with Ukraine was also at stake. The Confederation party campaigned
on an anti-Ukraine message, accusing the country of lacking gratitude to Poland
for its help in Russia’s war. Its poor showing will be a relief for Kyiv.
A referendum on migration, the
retirement age and other issues was held simultaneously. Some government
opponents called on voters to boycott the referendum, saying it was an attempt
by the government to galvanize its supporters.
Many voters were seen refusing
to take part in the referendum and the exit poll pegged participation at 40
percent, which meant the results would not be legally binding.
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