PARIS, France
France fears a repeat of its disastrous falling-out with Mali in junta-ruled Burkina Faso, where another domino in its military cooperation against West African jihadists could topple.
French troops withdrew from
Mali last year, after a 2020 coup in the former French colony saw its rulers
inch closer to Russia.
Burkina Faso, also once under
French rule, now seems to be moving down the same path, after officers seized
power there in September, in the second coup in eight months.
France has 400 special forces
stationed in the country to battle a jihadist insurgency.
But relations have
deteriorated in recent months, and Burkinabe Prime Minister Apollinaire Kyelem
de Tembela in November said he hoped to "diversify partnership
relations" in the fight against jihadists.
"Russia is a reasonable
choice," Tembela said on Saturday after meeting Russian ambassador Alexey
Saltykov.
The premier also made a
discreet visit to Moscow in early December.
In Mali, France fell out of
favour with the junta after the alleged arrival in 2021 of operatives from the
murky Wagner Russian mercenary outfit to bolster government forces.
Behind the scenes, the
Burkinabe military government has sought to reassure Paris that it does not
intend to enlist Wagner's help.
But French sources say a delegation
from the mercenary group has visited the mineral-rich country, where a Russian
firm already operates several gold mines.
French special forces are
staying in Burkina Faso for now, but could leave immediately if President Ibrahim
Traore strikes a deal with Wagner.
Their preferred scenario would
be to redeploy to neighbouring Niger, where 2,000 French troops are already
stationed, two sources familiar with the plans told AFP.
Some experts say this scenario
is becoming unavoidable, as the former colonial power has not managed to help
quell the jihadist violence wracking the impoverished country since 2015.
"The Sahel is undergoing
a deep transformation, one of increasingly strong anti-French sentiment,"
said Alain Antil, an expert on the region at the French Institute of
International Relations.
Resentment is felt not just
among "certain elites" but also shapes "public opinion in big
cities", he said.
Paris may allege "this
Francophobia is entirely fabricated by geopolitical enemies", Antil added,
but it in fact runs "far deeper".
African governments need to
take this into account, the researcher said, and the French military presence
in the Sahel would "likely" be drastically reduced eventually.
In October, anti-French
demonstrators gathered outside France's embassy in Ouagadougou and the French
cultural centre was attacked.
Another demonstration outside
the embassy followed the next month.
In early January, the French
foreign ministry said it had received a letter from the junta asking for
ambassador Luc Hallade to be replaced after he ruffled feathers with reports on
the country's worsening security situation.
The tensions were such that
Paris dispatched deputy foreign minister Chrysoula Zacharopoulou to meet
Burkina's president.
"I didn't come here to
influence any choice or decision. No-one can dictate Burkina's choices,"
she said after meeting Traore.
A diplomatic source said the
visit did not intend to force the African country to choose sides but
Zacharopoulou "was very clear about the consequences of the choice the
authorities would make".
Burkinabe analyst Drissa
Traore said tensions were still the same, even after the visit.
"The transition
authorities are determined to form new partnerships, or even revitalise them,
with Russia in pole position," he said.
French President Emmanuel
Macron has given himself until spring to rethink military partnerships in
Africa, which are to be less visible and more closely aligned with the specific
demands of host countries.
He should draw the first
conclusions "in the coming weeks", a government source said.
France does not want to lose
strategic ground in a continent set to be home to 2.5 billion people by 2050.
But Antil said it was also in
France and its partners' interest to avoid any jihadist violence spilling over
into North Africa.
"While it's not in its
closest vicinity, the Sahel is still part of Europe's southern
neighbourhood," he said.
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