UNITED NATIONS, US
The United Nations estimates
that the global human population will reach eight billion by mid-November, and
will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace and with regional disparities,
in the decades to come.This picture taken on October 22, 2022 shows people walking through a market in Allahabad. PHOTO / AFP
Here are some key takeaways
from the UN analysis:
The UN Population Division
estimates that the number of humans on Earth will grow to eight billion on
November 15, more than three times higher than the 2.5 billion global headcounts
in 1950.
However, after a peak in the
early 1960s, the world's population growth rate has decelerated dramatically,
Rachel Snow of the UN Population Fund told AFP.
Annual growth has fallen from
a high of 2.1 percent between 1962 and 1965 to below 1 percent in 2020.
That figure could potentially fall
to around 0.5 percent by 2050 due to a continued decline in fertility rates,
the United Nations projects.
Given the increase in life
expectancy as well as the number of people of childbearing age, the UN projects
the population to continue growing to about 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in
2050, and a peak of about 10.4 billion in the 2080s.
Other groups have, however,
calculated different figures.
The US-based Institute for
Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimated in a 2020 study that the global
population would max out by 2064, without ever reaching 10 billion, and decline
to 8.8 billion by 2100.
"We are lower than them
(the UN) and I think we have a good reason," lead author of the IHME
study, Stein Emil Vollset, told AFP.
The University of Washington
professor says that under their "quite different fertility model,"
the human population will only reach somewhere between nine and 10 billion.
In 2021, the average fertility
rate was 2.3 children per woman over her lifetime, down from about five in
1950, according to the UN, which projects that number to fall to 2.1 by 2050.
"We've reached a stage in
the world where the majority of countries and the majority of people in this
world are living in a country that is below replacement fertility," or
roughly 2.1 children per woman, says Snow.
A key factor driving global
population growth is that average life expectancy continues to increase: 72.8
years in 2019, nine years more than in 1990. And the UN predicts an average
life expectancy of 77.2 years by 2050.
The result, combined with the
decline in fertility, is that the proportion of people over 65 is expected to
rise from 10 percent in 2022 to 16 percent in 2050.
This global graying will have
an impact on labor markets and national pension systems, while requiring much
more elderly care.
Snow says that a growing
number of countries are reaching out to her organization, asking "how can
UNFPA help us better understand what we might do to boost our population."
Beneath the global averages
are some major regional disparities.
For example, the UN projects
that more than half of the population growth by 2050 will come from just eight
countries: Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria,
Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
The average age in different
regions is also meaningful, currently at 41.7 years in Europe versus 17.6 years
in Sub-Saharan Africa, according to Snow, who says the gap "has never been
as large as it is today."
Those numbers could even out,
but unlike in the past when countries' average ages were mostly young, says
Snow, "in the future, we may be closer in age, mostly old."
Some experts believe these
regional demographic differences may play a significant role in geopolitics
going forward.
In another illustration of
changing trends, the two most populous countries, China and India, will trade
places on the podium as early as 2023, according to the UN.
China's 1.4 billion population
will eventually begin to decline, falling to 1.3 billion by 2050, the UN
projects.
By the end of the century, the
Chinese population could fall to only 800 million.
India's population, currently
just below that of China, is expected to surpass its northern neighbor in 2023,
and grow to 1.7 billion by 2050 -- though its fertility rate has already fallen
below replacement level.
The United States will remain
the third most populous country in 2050, the UN projects, but it will be tied
with Nigeria at 375 million. - AFP
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