Is Kenya experiencing a second Covid-19 wave?

By Our Correspondent, NAIROBI Kenya

The Kenya Health ministry in its daily Covid-19 update (on October 21) reported 16 deaths over the last 24 hours.

This was the fifth-highest daily total, after August 1, 12, 19 and 21 (23, 18, 19, 16 deaths). A total of 870 people have now been reported officially to have died of Covid-19.

The average case detection rate in October is now 6.52 per cent above that of September (4.63), but below August (9.30) and July (10.21). Given the trends since October 13, the average case detection rate for October is likely to continue to rise.

What are the implications of this? The seven-day running average number of tests currently being done is about 4,500. If the detection rate continues to rise, then more testing needs to be done to reflect the true Covid-19 situation.

Perhaps of greater significance is the number of deaths being reported. Undoubtedly, there are many Covid-related deaths that have not been reported, either because of stigma or testing was not available at the time of death. So the total number of deaths reported to date is likely to be an underestimate.

That the tip of the Covid-19 pyramid is growing larger (only seven per cent of Covid-19 cases have symptoms), indicates a large base below.

With inadequate testing, it means health workers are being exposed more and health facilities may become overwhelmed as medics quarantine after exposure or fall ill.

Of interest is that in July and August, which were reported as the ‘peak’, the proportion of Covid-19 cases was more than the proportion of tests done.

This is not the case in October so far, the proportion of Covid-19 cases is almost the same as the number of tests done.

When the two bits of data are put together, they suggest that many cases are going undetected in the current testing strategy. This will not help health workers to plan for care or their own protection.