ANKARA/BEIRUT (Reuters) - President Donald
Trump’s decision to pull out of Syria radically realigns the balance of power
in the country’s northeast and creates a vacuum which Russia, Turkey and Iran
are racing to fill.
With
Turkish forces pressing south from the border, the Kurds have invited troops
from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s Russian-backed government in from the
south and the west. Assad’s forces are exploiting the U.S. retreat to seize
back resource-rich territory they abandoned years ago.
Smoke rises from the Syrian town of Ras al-Ain |
The
area includes most of the Syrian lands that formed the “caliphate” of the
Islamic State group, whose fighters have gone underground but vowed to stage a
comeback.
More
than 10,000 Islamic State prisoners, including many hardened foreign jihadis
whose Western governments refuse to take them back, are in prisons there, and
tens of thousands of their family members are in camps.
Here
is a summary of what the U.S. withdrawal means for those rushing in and those
left behind.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan
says he wants to settle up to two million Syrian refugees, many of them of them
Sunni Arabs, into the region targeted in the operation, territory which is
currently controlled by Kurdish-led forces.
Turkish troops and Ankara-backed Syrian
rebels have focused in the first week of operations on driving Syrian Kurdish
YPG fighters from two major border towns, Tel Abyad and Ras al Ain, about 120
km (75 miles) apart.
Despite a chorus of global criticism, Erdogan
has said nothing will stop operations against Kurdish YPG fighters, considered
terrorists by Ankara because of their links to guerrillas waging an insurgency
in southeast Turkey.
Erdogan has said Turkey will seize a border
strip running hundreds of km (miles) from Kobani in the west to Hasaka in the
east and 30-35 km (18 to 22 miles) deep inside Syria.
A Turkish official told Reuters the operation
was proceeding “quite rapidly and successfully”. The first phase would be
complete by Nov. 13, when Erdogan is due to meet Trump during a visit to
Washington, he said, without specifying how far Turkey would have gone by then.
The
full withdrawal of U.S. forces and deployment of the Syrian army is a major
juncture in the Syrian conflict, restoring a foothold for Assad’s government
across the biggest swath of the country that had been outside its grasp.
Turkey-backed Syrian rebel fighters raise the Syrian opposition flag at the border town of Tel Abyad, Syria, October 14, 2019 |
The area includes oil, farmland,
water resources and the hydro-electric dam at Tabqa - vital assets that will
better position the government to cope with the impact of Western sanctions.
Syrian state media have said troops
have reached the M4 highway that runs east-west around 30 km (18 miles) south
of the frontier with Turkey, on the edge of Ankara’s planned “safe zone”. On
Tuesday they entered Manbij, in an area that had been patrolled jointly by
Turkey and the United States.
Assad’s army, however, has been
weakened by the attrition of prolonged conflict, and now relies heavily on
Russia, Iran and Iran’s Shi’ite militia allies including Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
Syria’s Kurdish groups exploited the
withdrawal of government forces from the northeast at the start of the Syrian
conflict to build up the institutions of autonomy and teach Kurdish language in
local schools.
Exposed to Turkish attack by the U.S.
withdrawal, they invited the Syrian army back - a decision that highlighted
their weakness and signaled an end to many of their dreams.
They will hope to preserve as much of
their autonomy as possible in political talks with the Syrian state - their
long declared objective. But they no longer have a powerful ally to back them.
Still, Damascus and the SDF share the
objective of driving Turkey from northern Syria, or at least halting its
advance.
“Damascus needs the Kurds. The Kurds
and Damascus have two things in common: enmity for Turkey and a desire not to
see Sunni rebel militias ruling the northeast of Syria,” said Joshua Landis,
head of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.
“But they don’t agree on anything
when it comes to ruling northeast Syria.”
The Kurdish-led SDF was the main
force on the ground in the U.S.-backed offensive that recaptured the Syrian
lands of Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliphate, including the group’s de
facto capital Raqqa. Before its pullout, Washington had been preparing to train
and equip an SDF force to stabilize the area, to prevent a return by the
militants, who carried out large massacres of Kurds in towns they had
controlled.
The SDF says the Turkish offensive
has helped energize Islamic State sleeper cells, just a year after the
“caliphate” was effectively dismantled. Islamic State has already claimed
responsibility for attacks, including a deadly car bomb strike outside a restaurant
in the biggest Kurdish city Qamishli just a day after Turkey launched its
incursion.
Since the fighting started last week,
the SDF says there has also been unrest in the prisons where they are holding
the fighters, and in camps holding their wives and children.
Assad’s ally Iran is also set to
gain. Iraqi paramilitary groups backed by Iran on the Iraq-Syria border will
likely help Assad secure control, strengthening their own supply lines along a
corridor of territory from Tehran to Beirut.
Russia’s indispensable role in Syria
reflects a larger shift in the Middle East from Damascus to Riyadh, as
showcased by President Vladimir Putin’s Gulf tour this week, including his
first visit to Saudi Arabia in more than a decade.
It was Russia’s intervention with air
power in 2015 which helped turn the tide of Syria’s civil war in Assad’s favor,
and Trump’s decision to pull out of the northeast has cemented Moscow’s central
role in shaping the country’s future.
“There are Turkish-Russian talks ...
to set the tempo for northern Syria, particularly east of the Euphrates,” said
a regional pro-Damascus source. “They are the ones moving all these plans.”
The Turkish official said Ankara is
“working in very close cooperation with Russia”, and Erdogan pointed on Monday
to Russia’s importance when he said that President Vladimir Putin had shown a
“positive approach” to the situation.
The two countries may be able to
forge an agreement dividing the northern border into new control zones and
prevent their local allies - the Syrian government on the one hand and
anti-Assad insurgents on the other - from going to war.
“I think there will be real friction
but I do think the Russians will be able to manage it. There is a deal to be
made,” said Joshua Landis, an expert on Syria and head of the Center for Middle
East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.
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