Nigeria security forces ‘kill’ protesters after curfew imposed

LAGOS, Nigeria

Several protesters were killed by Nigerian security forces in Lagos on Tuesday, Amnesty International said after witnesses reported armed men opened fire on demonstrators defying a curfew order.

“People were killed at the (Lekki) tollgate by security forces,” Amnesty’s Nigeria spokesman Isa Sanusi told AFP, in reference to a key protest site in the city.

He said the rights group was “working on verifying how many”.

Witnesses told AFP that shots were fired at the crowd of over 1,000 peaceful demonstrators to disperse them several hours after the authorities declared an open-ended lockdown in Lagos in the face of spiralling protests.

“We were all sitting down, peacefully, and they shut down the lights and the billboards, everyone started screaming,” a protester called Toye told AFP, asking that her full name not be used.

“They came to us, but I don’t know who it was. They were shooting, and everyone was running for his life.”

Another protester, Innocent, said he was helping to ferry the wounded to nearby hospitals.

“Currently I have two people that I rush in my car, a woman and a guy, who are in very critical conditions,” he said.

“I rushed two people already to hospital. One was shot at the back, and one was shot at the stomach.”.

Scenes of people removing a bullet from someone’s wound and pleading for help were broadcast in a live video by DJ Switch, a popular disc jockey, to 150,000 Instagram viewers.

Earlier defiant protesters at the scene had sung the national anthem and pledged to remain out on the streets despite the stay-at-home order.

Anger over abuses by the police’s loathed Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) erupted into widespread protests some two weeks ago that drew thousands onto the streets.

Lagos state governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu ordered the round-the-clock shutdown in the sprawling economic hub on Tuesday, claiming the protests had “degenerated into a monster” as violence flared in a string of cities.

“Criminals and miscreants are now hiding under the umbrella of these protests to unleash mayhem,” he wrote on Twitter, insisting that only essential workers should stay out on the streets.

“We will not watch and allow anarchy in our dear state.”

As the tone hardened from the authorities, Nigeria’s police chief ordered anti-riot units deployed around the country.

“The force will henceforth exercise the full powers of the law to prevent any further attempt on lives and property of citizens,” a statement said.

Up until Tuesday some 18 people had died in the demonstrations as clashes were reported between protesters and assailants wearing civilian clothes.

Rights groups and demonstrators have accused “thugs and sponsored hoodlums” of attacking the peaceful rallies and seeking to discredit the protest movement.

Witnesses told AFP that a police station was set ablaze in the Orile Iganmu district of Lagos on Tuesday morning. They said police opened fire on protesters, wounding several.

In the capital Abuja, security forces violently dispersed crowds during the day on Tuesday and thick black smoke could be seen over the city.

Violence spread as well to the largest northern city of Kano as hundreds of people went on a rampage, burning vehicles and looting businesses according to an AFP reporter at the scene.

“The mob came near the school and began assaulting parents who had come to pick up their children,” 35-year old auto mechanic Sadiq Mohammed told AFP.

Police said 12 suspects were also arrested in southern Benin City in connection with separate attacks on two police facilities.

The government announced the scrapping of the SARS unit and a raft of reforms over a week ago, but the bid to placate the protesters has failed.

Officials have called for the demonstrations to be suspended to give the authorities time to make good on their pledges.

Nigeria — where the median age is 18 — is a tinderbox of profound economic and social grievances.

Around half of the population of 200 million is estimated to live in extreme poverty and unemployment is widespread among the youth.

Africa’s biggest oil producer is currently facing a recession as the fall in crude prices sparked by the coronavirus pandemic has battered government finances.

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce said in a statement that estimated economic losses in the past 12 days were at 700 billion naira ($1.8 billion dollars, 1.5 billion euros).

On Tuesday, the Senate called on President Muhammadu Buhari to address the nation on the protests “as a matter of urgency”.

Central Sahel faces acute hunger, WFP warns

Washington, USA

An estimated 7.4 million people in the Central Sahel region of West Africa are facing crisis levels of acute hunger, according to the WFP.

According to the agency, thousands in the region will be pushed into further destitution unless access is urgently granted to humanitarian organizations.

“When we can’t get to vulnerable communities, we’re seeing tragic spikes in food insecurity,” said Chris Nikoi, WFP regional director for West Africa.

He stated that “dreadful violence and conflict” in parts of northern Burkina Faso have left more than 10,000 people there “one step short of famine”.

The number of internally displaced people has jumped to a staggering 1.6 million, up from 70,000 two years ago including more than 288,000 people in Mali, some 265,000 in Niger and one million in Burkina Faso, which is now home to the world’s fastest-growing displacement crisis, according to the agency.

Compared to the average of the last five years, acute food insecurity has increased by a staggering 514% in Burkina Faso, 130% in Mali and 144% in Niger, according to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Speaking before the virtual meeting, which is hosted by the UN, Denmark, Germany and the European Union, UN emergency aid chief Mark Lowcock said the funds raised would go towards not just preventing hunger but would also include provision for schooling, healthcare and shelters.

Organizers hope Tuesday’s meeting will help them secure $1billion in urgently needed funds.

The UN has so far only been able to gather 34 percent of the $1.4billion required to provide urgent aid to 13 million people across the three countries.

 

Fiancee of Khashoggi, human rights group sue Saudi crown prince in U.S.

By Jonathan Landay, WASHINGTON USA

The fiancée of slain Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and a human rights group that he founded filed a lawsuit in a U.S. court on Tuesday with allegations that Saudi Arabia’s crown prince ordered him killed.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman

The civil lawsuit, which seeks unspecified damages against Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, also named more than 20 other Saudis as defendants. It coincides with complications in the U.S.-Saudi relationship over the 2018 slaying of Khashoggi, Riyadh’s human rights record, its role in Yemen’s civil war and other issues.

The Saudi embassy did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the lawsuit. The crown prince - known by his initials MbS - has denied ordering Khashoggi’s murder.

Khashoggi, who criticized the policies of the crown prince, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, in Washington Post columns, was killed and dismembered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. He went there to obtain papers he needed to marry Hatice Cengiz, a Turkish citizen.

Cengiz and Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), a U.S.-based human rights group founded by Khashoggi, a legal resident of Virginia, filed the lawsuit in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. It names several of the crown prince’s aides and officials who were convicted in Saudi Arabia of the murder. The prosecution declared the Saudi case closed.

The lawsuit charged that MbS, his co-defendants and others carried out a plot to “permanently silence Mr. Khashoggi” no later than the summer of 2018 after discovering his “plans to utilize DAWN as a platform to espouse democratic reform and promote human rights.”

A lawsuit was filed in August in a U.S. court by a former top Saudi intelligence official who accused the crown prince of sending a hit team to kill him in Canada, where he lives in exile.

Both lawsuits were brought under a law allowing U.S. court actions against foreign officials over allegations of involvement in torture or extrajudicial killings. - Reuters

 

Burundi former president sentenced to life imprisonment over murder of successor

By Our Correspondent, BUJUMBURA, Burindi

Burundi Supreme Court has sentenced 70-year-old former president Pierre Buyoya (pictured) to life in prison for involvement in the murder of his successor. 

The murder sparked a brutal and long-lasting civil war between the ethnic Hutus and Tutsis

Buyoya led the country twice: from 1987 to 1993 and from 1996 to 2003. Both times he seized power with the help of the military. 

He is currently the African Union’s envoy for the Sahel region.

The former leader is said to have had a hand in the murder of his successor Melchior Ndadaye, who was murdered shortly after the 1993 elections. 

Then a war broke out between Hutus and Tutsis that killed 300,000 people and lasted ten years.

Buyoya did not appear at the trial and was sentenced in absentia along with 15 others. 

He calls the allegations politically motivated. 

Melchior Ndadaye

According to him, the current government is ripping up old wounds to win votes.

After the civil war, Buyoya took part in the peace negotiations. The former leader says that the blood feud over the murder has been settled in this reconciliation process. 

There is still much uncertainty surrounding the death of Ndadaye, who was the country’s first democratically elected president. He is seen as a national hero.

Rwanda, Burundi hold talks to restore lost ties

KIGALI, Rwanda

The Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Rwanda and Burundi are meeting at Nemba One Stop Border Post in Bugesera District to discuss ways of restoring bilateral ties between the two countries.

Rwanda’s Minister of Foreign
Affairs and Cooperation Dr Vincent
Biruta welcomed his Burundian
counterpart Amb. Albert Shingiro
and his delegation 

Rwanda’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation Dr Vincent Biruta welcomed his Burundian counterpart Amb. Albert Shingiro and his delegation at 10am on Tuesday at Nemba where they exchanged greetings in a jovial atmosphere before they addressed the meeting and proceeding to meet in a closed session to discuss issues that need to be addressed.

It is the first time the two countries have officially met to discuss relations since 2015 when ties between the neighbours soured following the conflict that gripped the East African country, with Bujumbura alleging that Kigali backed groups that opposed late President Pierre Nkurunziza’s government.

Rwanda denied the allegations but relations between the two countries never stabilised. Following the election of President Evariste Ndayishimiye earlier this year, President Paul Kagame said that Rwanda was looking forward to work with the new government in Bujumbura to restore bilateral ties.

The meeting at Nemba came after Bujumbura expressed the willingness to talk to Rwanda, with this being the first meeting for the Foreign Affairs Ministers. In his opening remarks, Minister Biruta said that Rwanda was willing to play its part in the thawing of bilateral ties, to ensure that the citizens of the two countries co-exist as they were before ties broke down.

“We would like to welcome you to Rwanda and to thank you for the decision to have this meeting for us to discuss, not only as neighbours but also as blood relatives, which is why we will speak in Kinyarwanda and Kirundi, without anyone translating for us,”

“Your visit today is a big step towards restoring ties between Rwanda and Burundi. I want to affirm to you that we are ready to do our part towards restoring ties between our two countries and to discuss existing issues and arrive at a solution. We are doing this because this is not only important for our governments but also our citizens who benefit when relations are good,” Dr Biruta said.

He said it is the beginning of talks which will see the full restoration of ties.

On his part, Amb. Shingiro thanked Rwanda for the warm reception and said that his government was looking forward to fruitful discussions and ‘less meetings’ as the two countries work towards faster and full restoration of ties.

“As the Government of Burundi, we came here to express our willingness to work towards restoring ties which were affected in 2015. We want to ensure that the issues that exist between our two countries are addressed so that we go back to existing as neighbours and relatives,”

“I have always told people who suggest that they want to mediate relations between Rwanda and Burundi that it is not possible because we know each other so well as relatives and don’t need anybody to mediate us. We can do this on our own and this is what we are doing today,” Shingiro said.

He said that the Burundian Government is hopeful that the meetings which have started will be fewer and ensure that ties between the two countries are restored as soon as possible.

Tanzania government accussed of stifling dissent ahead of polls

DAR ES SALAAM, Tanzania

Tanzanian President John Magufuli’s government has built up a formidable arsenal of laws to stifle all forms of dissent ahead of this month’s elections, rights group Amnesty International said in a new report on Monday.

Authorities have effectively clamped down on the rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly, according to the report.

Security forces have arrested opposition candidates on bogus charges, stripping them of their right to freedom of assembly, association and movement in recent months, amnesty claimed.

"Tanzania has weaponised the law to the point that no one really knows when they are on the right or wrong side of it,” Deprose Muchena, Amnesty International’s director for East and Southern Africa, said.

"Politicians have been arrested for holding or attending meetings, media houses suspended and banned, online activism criminalised, and NGOs stifled with endless regulations,” Muchena added.

The East African country is heading to the polls on October 28. President Magufuli is seeking a second five-year term and is being challenged by 14 other candidates.

Earlier this month, authorities suspended the election campaign of leading opposition candidate Tundu Lissu for seven days over accusations of inciting violence in the run-up to the vote.

The National Electoral Commission said the decision was taken by its ethics committee after it received two complaints from the ruling party and another party about the language Lissu had used on the campaign trail.

Lissu said the ban was “unacceptable”, calling the decision “another proof of a discredited electoral commission and a compromised electoral system”.

Lissu returned to Tanzania in July from Belgium where he had gone for treatment three years ago after being shot 16 times in an assassination attempt in September 2017.

In June, nine opposition politicians were arrested for allegedly holding an illegal assembly.

The same month, the operating license of opposition-leaning newspaper Tanzania Daima was revoked after it was accused of violating laws against spreading false information.

“President Magufuli must urgently reverse the decline in political and civil freedoms in Tanzania and ensure human rights defenders, activists and civil society organizations can carry out their work freely and independently without any fear of reprisals,” Amnesty’s Muchena said.

Zambia begs China to suspend debt repayments

LUSAKA, Zambia

The Zambia’s ruling Patriotic Front regime says it has in the past few months begged Chinese creditors to suspend payment of debt falling due from May 1 to Dec. 31, the ministry of finance said on Thursday.

Zambia has already asked, unsuccessfully, creditors to defer interest payments on three outstanding dollar-denominated bonds.

Zambia is advancing the coronavirus pandemic as the reason for failing to service debt, hence the fake Covid 19 being churned out by the ministry of health.

“The Government intends to share the burden equitably across its official and commercial creditors,” minister of finance Bwalya Ngandu told anxious bondholders.

Main Chinese creditors include the Export Import Bank of China, China Development Bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and a few other commercial entities including the Bank of China, Bwalya said in a statement to bondholders.

Central government external debt service on Chinese loans amounts to approximately $426.3 million in 2020 and $428 million in 2021’, minister Bwalya said.

Assuming the debt service suspension requests made by the Zambia were all successful, the maximum amount of 2020 debt service suspended and rescheduled would be $225.3 million, he said.

He said multilateral creditors would be called on to participate by way of fresh financing rather than debt relief.

Recently the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance said that Zambia’s debt is over 90 percent of GDP. This simply means that if the owner of loans decided to call them, we would need to give away 90 percent of our wealth to pay our creditors.

It means that in 2020, out of the Kwacha47 billion that Zambia Revenue Authority will collect, Kwacha35.92 billion will be spent on debt service; therefore, debt service as a percentage of revenue is 76.4 percent.

Malawi President defends decision not to wear mask in Tanzania

By Our Correspondent, LILONGWE Malawi

President of Malawi, Lazarus Chakwera says he did not wear a mask in Tanzania because people in Tanzania do not wear masks as they believe that Coronavirus was eliminated in their country.

The Malawi leader was speaking upon arrival from Tanzanian on Thursday.

Chakwera was criticised in Malawi for not wearing a mask during his two day stay in Tanzania where he held talks with President John Pombe Magufuli and also carried out public engagements.

Speaking Kamuzu International Airport today, the Malawi leader said he was doing what his hosts do in order to earn their trust.

“In terms of what Tanzania has experienced, their tradition is not to wear a mask because they believe they have been over the pandemic and so it’s a question of trying to balance what our tradition is and what our diplomatic preferences would be in order for us to establish true relationships based on trust,” he said.

On the Lake Malawi wrangle, Chakwera said Magufuli described the wrangle as a non-issue and they did not discuss it during the trip.

According to Chakwera, the two leaders first wanted to strengthen relations, build trust and develop friendship before discussing sensitive issues.

“So that when we talk about sensitive issues we talk from a position of friendship and not from a position of hostility,” said Chakwera.

He added that the trip was a success as they discussed various issues include trade, mining and transport.

According to Chakwera, they want to make sure that the two countries create an environment where businesspeople from Tanzania and Malawi partner together in various areas in order to integrate a vision needed for the SADC region.

Malawi’s president cut short a three-day visit to Tanzania on Thursday as women’s organizations in his country prepared to stage a nationwide protest over his failure to ensure that women receive a fair share of public appointments.  

Lazarus Chakwera, who arrived in Tanzania on Wednesday, left a day earlier than scheduled after holding talks with his counterpart John Magufuli. He also visited the Malawi Cargo Center in Dar es Salaam and held a private meeting with a number of business investors, Tanzania’s local news website The Citizen reported. 

State House in Lilongwe confirmed that Chakwera has returned home to deal with the demonstrations organized for Friday by various women’s organizations in the country in protest against "gender imbalance," regarding it as an urgent domestic priority, according to the report. 

The Women’s Manifesto Movement (WMM), comprising several women’s empowerment civil society organizations, are planning to demonstrate against what they consider Chakwera’s failure to fulfill the Gender Equality Act requirement of 60:40 representation of either sex in public appointments, slamming what they considered “systematic discrimination against women in public appointments.

 

 

It’s obvious our poll chiefs can’t play role of ‘ndiki-ndikiki’ referee

By Jenerali Ulimwengu, DAR ES SALAAM Tanzania

A brief autobiographic note: We grew up happy but essentially poor, though you shouldn’t ask me, poor as compared to what? Well, compared to those who did not grow up poor. At any rate, most of our children are still growing up poor to this day, if that is of any help, so you get my drift.

Tanzania President John Magufuli presides over the swearing-in of the National Electoral Commission director Wilson Mahera

So we grew up poor and our schools did not have such fancy things as proper football. As a result, we contrived to make our own footballs out of rags wrapped in old newspapers and pieces of cut cement bags pulled together tight with taut rubber bands, the better to provide the necessary bounce.

That done, we chose our two teams, with our self-designated team captains shouting ‘ndiki-ndikiki’ while calling out the names of their chosen players. The selection over, we often found out that we were an even number, which was a problem because if it was five players against five, you missed a referee. So the choice was either playing without a referee or having a referee from one of the teams.

We usually knew which one of the designated players could also be trusted to be a referee without too much worry about his fairness. And almost always those chosen as referees performed well, with negligible exceptions.

There is an uncanny similarity between this story of our childhood and what I am observing now. Our poverty does not reside in our not having the requisite gear to have fairness in whatever we play; our problem lies in the poverty of philosophy which has made our rulers fail to see that it is not fair to have a player for one team officiate in a match between his team and an opposing team.

In our primary school days, that anomaly was caused by necessity, and as I said above, the result was acceptable, mainly because the two teams agreed on the choice of arbiter. But now, in our elections, not only is the judge chosen against the protests of the other side, but he/she goes out to show the other side which side he will be rooting for.

The Tanzanian authorities have categorically refused to see this logic, that those who conduct elections must be seen to be fair, balanced and well-motivated, because, simply, if fairness is not the end result perceived, grievances could lead to unrest; and that is exactly how many African civil wars have started.

This election year we have witnessed a number of former arbiters in our processes, including electoral contests, come out in their party colours wanting to be candidates for a given party, and this has included a former chief justice and a former chair of the Zanzibar electoral commission, the same one who sabotaged the Zanzibar process five years ago to give Zanzibar an illegitimate government.

A Kiswahili saying tells us that if you do not know death, look at the grave, and our graves are all over the place for all of us to see, except for the very blind.

Everywhere on the continent where we see violence and disruption, even civil wars that have raged on for a number of decades, you can bet your last shilling that the trigger was the poor, shoddy and inequitable organisation of elections.

When Kenya pushed itself to the brink of the abyss in 2007-08, the cause was the same. And Kenyan politicians, blinded by the lure of power by whatever means, were drawn to this hell unseeing, unthinking, unhearing.

It would have been okay if the flagellation they released had affected them themselves and their families, but no, the most brutal forms of violence were directed towards people who had no hand in the doings of someone called Sam Kivuitu.

Iam using the name of Kivuitu, though he is departed — and may his soul rest in its rightful place — because it is important to recognise and call out those amongst us who are given responsibilities of life and death over us and then go on to play the role of absent-minded gods.

We have one such absent-minded god in Tanzania this time round, and his name is Wilson Mahera. He is the director of the National Electoral Commission, which everyone except Chama Cha Mapinduzi has called biased and unable to deliver a free and fair election. Mahera is himself a former postulant for a post through the ruling party only a couple of months ago, and it is only after he lost there that he was compensated by being made the chief executive of the electoral body. It is a most amazing fact, but this and many others are true in today’s Tanzania.

Recently Mahera has been taking issue with Tundu Lissu, the main opposition candidate, warning him against using “insults against other candidates,” without specifying which candidate had filed such complaints.

But Mahera bared his true colours last week when, apparently angry, he continued his attacks on Lissu and for good measure, reminded candidates and their parties what Tanzanians wanted: development, roads, railways, water, schools… the very mantra of the ruling party.

It was clear that Mahera could hardly have played the role of a ndiki-ndikiki referee. - The EastAfrican

Tanzania opposition facing repression as elections near

By Our Staff Reporter, DAR ES SALAAM Tanzania

Three weeks before elections, the Tanzanian government is getting scared and will do all in its power to stop the opposition, according to Tundu Lissu, a presidential hopeful whose convoy was teargassed by police last week.

U.S. ambassador to Tanzania, Donald Wright (R) meeting Tanzania's opposition chief, Tundu Lissu

"It is getting harder. It is getting hotter. We expected this," Lissu, from the main opposition Chadema party, told our reporter on Wednesday.

Chadema says its party offices in Arusha in northern Tanzania were firebombed. Meanwhile, dozens of opposition parliamentary candidates were disqualified from running in the elections for president and members of parliament on Oct. 28.

"The regime is getting scared and therefore they are pulling out all the stops, using all instruments of power in their capacity to fight my campaign," said Lissu.

Government spokesman Hassan Abbasi said that elections are under the purview of the National Electoral Commission when he was contacted for comment.

Some iteration of Tanzania's CCM party has held power since independence in 1961, and President John Magufuli is widely expected to win a second term, tightening his grip on East Africa's third-largest economy.

However, CCM's percentage of the presidential vote has slightly declined over the past two elections.

Last month U.S. ambassador to Tanzania Donald Wright tweeted his concerns about politically motivated violence and the overall increase in tensions as the Election Day gets closer.

“I'm concerned by the reports I'm hearing of politically motivated violence and the overall increase in tensions as we get closer to Tanzania's elections. I urge all parties to commit to free, fair, and peaceful elections. As the saying goes: Peace is the fruit of justice.”

The ambassador reiterated his call for a free, fair, and transparent election process when he met Tundu Lissu on Wednesday.

“It was wonderful to finally meet Tundu Lissu today. While the U.S. does not support any candidate or party in the upcoming election, we fully support a free, fair, and transparent process where all parties are afforded equal treatment." He stressed.

International watchdogs like Human Rights Watch and Reporters Without Borders have warned that repression of the opposition, activist groups, and the media has increased.

The government has previously denied clamping down on dissent.

Lissu returned in July after three years in exile following an unsolved 2017 assassination attempt. He was shot 16 times but survived.

Police said they teargassed Lissu's campaign convoy after unidentified people threw stones at them. They also said they had arrested opposition activists in one case, after Chadema offices were firebombed.

Last Friday, the ethics committee of the National Electoral Commission (NEC) suspended Lissu from campaigning for a week for using incendiary language.

The NEC has also upheld the disqualification of 39 parliamentary candidates who were initially disqualified and reinstated 67 others.

The opposition says the disqualifications are an attempt to boost the ruling party, an accusation the commission rejects.

"Why should the commission disqualify you if you meet all the criteria? It is not true," said Emmanuel Kawishe, the commission's legal services director.

Magufuli - nicknamed "The Bulldozer" - won the presidency in 2015, promising to fight corruption and build infrastructure.

But he has also clamped down on dissent. His government banned public rallies in 2016, and at least 10 Tanzanian media outlets have been banned for periods ranging from one week to indefinitely between January 2016 and July 2020, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.

That means the opposition has effectively been muzzled for several years, although now they are able to campaign, said Nicodemus Minde, a researcher on Tanzania at Nairobi's United States International University.

The media is wary of covering the campaign however, said political analyst Aikande Kwayu, as the Media Services Act of 2016 and the Electronic and Postal Communications Regulations are vague and are used to punish the media.

"This has made the media cautious in covering the campaign and scared to portray the ruling party in a negative light," she said.

Could opposition secure a shock victory in Tanzania's elections?

By Dastan Kweka, DAR ES SALAAM Tanzania

For many political observers, the outcome of Tanzania's 28 October general election is already known. President John Magufuli will win a second term in office, bolstered by the benefits of incumbency and supported by the country's best-resourced political party, Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM).

Tundu Lissu, the leading presidential challenger, has been drawing large crowds on the campaign trail even in the northern Lake Zone from which Magufuli hails.

This confidence derives from the fact that since winning the 2015 election with 58.46%, Magufuli has progressively consolidated his grip on power. His administration has targeted opposition members with intimidation, concocted charges and jail sentences. It has excluded critical voices within the ruling CCM.

And, apart from the security forces, it has repressed or co-opted every significant centre of power in the country. As such, the political arena has become so skewed that only one outcome this October seems feasible.

Many of Tanzania's opposition politicians, however, argue otherwise. They insist that, against all the odds, there is still the possibility of a shock result.

Is this merely part of their election strategy or are there convincing reasons behind their notes of caution?

The premise for the argument that the opposition could win is that the current regime is deeply unpopular but that it remains oblivious of this fact because it has silenced critical views, devalued advice, and restricted the publication of independent statistics such as opinion polls.

This view holds that large swathes of the population are quietly frustrated but that having suppressed the usual channels for expressing grievances, the government will only realise this when it is already too late.

Opposition figures also add that there have been some rifts within the CCM and point out that they have enjoyed high attendance at their own rallies. Tundu Lissu, the leading presidential challenger, has been drawing large crowds on the campaign trail even in the northern Lake Zone from which Magufuli hails.

Among other things, the opposition suggests that voters are dissatisfied with the government over its economic policies. During his time in office, President Magufuli has focused on major infrastructure projects. His administration has invested in a standard gauge railway, a 2,115-megawatt hydropower project, the Ubungo flyover and attempted to revive the national airline Air Tanzania.

The current regime is deeply unpopular but that it remains oblivious of this fact because it has silenced critical views, devalued advice, and restricted the publication of independent statistics such as opinion polls.

While these projects may yield long-term benefits, the trade-off is that they divert resources from more immediate priorities in the short-term, as the IMF has repeatedly advised the government.

Some opposition figures are therefore presenting the government's investment record as an electoral weakness. Zitto Kabwe, for instance, recently explained that the opposition would be "telling the people that they should let bridges, planes, and flyovers vote for (Magufuli). Citizens should vote for people who will look after their welfare."

If voters heed this message and take the opportunity of the vote to express their silent discontentment, the argument goes, Tanzania is in for a shock opposition victory.

While there may be some truth to the opposition's claims, there are perhaps many more reasons to doubt the possibility they can win.

To begin with, the opposition remains fragmented.

Despite months of talks, the two leading parties - Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo - have struggled to agree on the nature and scale of their cooperation. As such, both Chadema's Tundu Lissu and ACT's Bernard Membe spent weeks - in September - running separate campaigns.

Lissu (L) is the most popular and charismatic opposition candidate 

Membe has now gone underground but has not yet endorsed Lissu. Lissu is the most popular and charismatic of the two, but he would need ACT votes, especially in the southern and coastal regions, to strengthen his challenge to Magufuli.

One reason cooperation has proven difficult is a historic mistrust between the two parties' leaders. Another is that both parties need votes to qualify for financial support. In Tanzania, political parties that secure at least 5% of parliamentary votes in all constituencies receive a government subsidy.

This support is a lifeline for opposition parties. Two years ago, the main opposition Chadema was receiving around $150,000 a month through this measure, which allowed it to maintain a strong grassroots network.

Although the two parties are expected to formally endorse each other's candidates in the coming weeks, they still face huge obstacles. The National Electoral Commission (NEC) has already disqualified many opposition candidates from running. 

According to the commission, 160 of parliamentary contestants have now appealed and 66 have had their disqualifications overturned.

 Nonetheless, this process has skewed the playing field. The ruling CCM did not have any problems registering candidates - including one who was recently convicted of economic crimes. 

20 of its nominees will now run unopposed, including Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa.

The CCM also has the advantage of having total control of local leadership following the 2019 local elections. In that ballot, most opposition candidates were similarly disqualified, prompting the opposition to boycott the vote. The ruling party won with 99.9%.