KYIV, Ukraine
President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky's term in office is supposed to end on May 20, 2024 – but it won’t.
As Russia’s war delayed the
elections and Zelensky's term is looking indefinite, Ukraine’s President’s
Office is preparing to weather the storm of critics questioning the president’s
legitimacy.
Officially, the administration
stays away from the topic. Unofficially, its members have been warning allies
for months that Russia was preparing a targeted campaign to undermine
Zelensky’s legitimacy in the eyes of Ukrainians and the West.
Undermining Zelensky’s
legitimacy is part of Russia’s multi-component plan to destabilize Ukraine,
Deputy Chief of Military Intelligence Vadym Skibitsky told the Economist in a
recent interview.
Two sources in the President’s
Office, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that the Western allies were
aware of the threat and weren’t willing to push Ukraine toward presidential and
parliamentary elections in the near future.
The question of whether Zelensky can stay in office after May is debated in Ukraine, as well, albeit not massively. Zelensky’s critics argue that the Constitution does not authorize the extension of Zelensky's powers under martial law. However, constitutional lawyers say that such an extension is legal and complies with the Constitution.
While legality means
compliance with the law, another issue is legitimacy – acceptance of the
government by the population.
Zelensky's approval rating,
boosted by his leadership during the war, has been falling, leading some to
question his legitimacy. However, even after the fall, it stays above 50%.
Political analysts also say
that there will be no genuine problems with Zelensky's legitimacy unless there
are large-scale protests similar to the 2004 Orange Revolution and the 2014
EuroMaidan Revolution.
The Ukrainian authorities have
denied the claim that there are problems with Zelensky’s legality or
legitimacy, and have dismissed it as an artificial issue forced by Russia.
"This Russian narrative
has no legal grounds," Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk, formerly a legal
scholar, said in March. "The Constitution's Article 108 clearly says that
the president of Ukraine fulfills his duties until the next president takes
office. This is the principle of the continuity of power."
Zelensky’s spokesman Serhiy
Nikiforov told the Kyiv Independent that the president’s team does not comment
on the issue.
Zelensky was elected president
in April 2019 and was inaugurated in May. If martial law had not been imposed,
the next presidential election would be held on March 31, 2024, and Zelensky’s
term would end on May 20.
Similarly, if not for martial
law, a parliamentary election would have been held on Oct. 29, 2023, ending the
term for the current parliament elected in July 2019.
The Ukrainian Constitution
stipulates that the authority of the country's parliament must be extended
until the expiry of martial law. However, the Constitution does not contain
similar explicit provisions on presidential elections.
Some of the president’s
critics have argued that there is a legal collision between the Constitution
and the martial law act. They claim that, since the Ukrainian Constitution is
the supreme law, it overrides the martial law act, and presidential elections
cannot be postponed.
Former Speaker Dmytro
Razumkov, once an ally and now a critic and political opponent of Zelensky,
claimed in February that the president's authority would expire in the spring
of 2024, after which he must transfer his powers to the parliament speaker. The
speaker would then remain acting president until a new president is elected.
This line of reasoning has
been extensively used by Russian propaganda.
Vasily Nebenzia, Russia's
ambassador to the UN, claimed in March that Zelensky's "decision not to
hold presidential elections makes him illegitimate after May 21."
Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov was more ambiguous.
"As far as May 21 is
concerned, let's live until it happens," he said. "Maybe we won't
have to recognize (Zelensky as legitimate)."
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