NAIROBI, Kenya
All eyes will be on President Uhuru Kenyatta today as he hosts delegates from the Mt Kenya region at Sagana State Lodge, Nyeri county, to rally the vote-rich region behind ODM leader Raila Odinga.
Dubbed Sagana III after two
previous meetings at the same venue, today’s event will be followed keenly not
just by political observers but also by the leading protagonists, Raila and
Deputy President William Ruto.
It is even more significant
considering the events that have shaped the country’s politics in the last four
years, particularly the bitter fallout between President Kenyatta and his
deputy that caught Kenyans, by surprise.
While defiant Ruto enjoys significant
support in Mt Kenya, going by recent opinion polls, it is no longer a secret
that Uhuru is ready to go the whole hog to reclaim the region from Ruto’s grip.
Today’s event is also expected
to shift top gears in the race for the August 9 presidential election as Uhuru
firms up his succession plan—rekindling memories of his first stab at the
presidency way back in 2002.
It is worth noting that the
President was welcomed into politics through a baptism of fire when President
Moi endorsed him much to the chagrin of the more experienced politicians around
him.
Although Uhuru had promised to
pass the baton to Ruto at the end of his constitutional two terms, Kenyans were
treated to a surprise turn of events when he shifted his support to Raila.
The Handshake on the steps of
Harambee House on March 9, 2018, changed the course of the country’s politics
permanently, with Ruto steadily being shoved aside as Raila began playing key
roles in the Jubilee administration.
And since the fallout between the President and his deputy, Raila has been Uhuru’s shield as Ruto led a de-facto opposition movement within Jubilee.
For almost three years, Uhuru
and Raila refuted growing speculation that the Handshake had been designed to
help the former premier succeed the President.
But it was only until mid-last
year when Uhuru started giving tell-tale signs of his desire to have Odinga
succeed him amid protests from the Ruto side.
And in recent days, Uhuru has
given clear indications he prefers Raila as his successor, warning the country
against Ruto’s candidature.
It is a decision that
political scientists and analysts say is a double-edged sword that can cut from
both sides.
Prof Macharia Munene, a former
lecturer at USIU-Africa and Dr Richard Bosire of the University of Nairobi warn
that Uhuru must play his cards well.
“The success of the Sagana III
meeting will obviously give Ruto sleepless nights. But at the same time, Uhuru
and Raila will come out of it badly injured if the delegates in the meeting
decide to defy his message,” says Munene.
On the other hand, Bosire says
that failure of the Sagana meeting to make an impact would provide Ruto, the
presumed Kenya Kwanza Alliance presidential candidate, with the ammunition to
brand Raila “as a puppet through whom Uhuru and his allies are seeking to
extend their rule through the back door.”
“If the people of Mt Kenya
fail to heed Uhuru’s persuasion to support Raila, it would give Ruto plenty of
arsenal to tell the country that the former premier is unsaleable, which would
be hard to campaign against,” says Bosire.
The two dons believe it will
be quite difficult for Raila to win without garnering considerable support from
Mt Kenya given the inroads the DP has made in his former stronghold regions of
the Coast and Western.
Apart from winning the soul of
Mt Kenya through Uhuru’s persuasion, the two dons say, he must work hard to
bring on board Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka to be assured of the presidency.
“Today’s meeting could be the
beginning of the long road towards winning the soul of Central Kenya. I am sure
after the meeting; the President will have to make inroads in the region to
explain to the rural people why he prefers Raila to Ruto. That message needs to
sink in people’s minds well,” says Munene.
Yesterday, Nyeri Town MP
Ngunjiri Wambugu told People Daily that today’s event heralds tough
moments for Ruto, saying Uhuru will use it to tell Mt Kenya why he prefers
Raila to the DP.
According to Wambugu, the
region is steadily shifting towards Raila and today’s event will push him
further up the populous Mt Kenya. “It is going to be a bad day for Ruto,” the
legislator said.
He dismissed those asking
Uhuru to remain impartial and avoid taking sides, saying it is his democratic
right to endorse and vote for a candidate of his choice. “He (Uhuru) has a
right to tell Kenyans who to vote for…” he said.
“He is saying there are two
candidates, one who has supported him in the last two years and is ready to
continue where he is going to leave and one who has not supported him in the
last two years and is not ready to continue with his projects,” Wambugu said.
He said thousands of delegates
from the 10 Mt Kenya counties had been invited to the event, adding that
“earthshaking” political statements that will change the course of politics
will be issued.
Although President Moi did not
manage to make Uhuru president in 2002, he successfully rallied the Kalenjin
behind him, he said, adding: “In fact Moi convinced the Kalenjin to vote for
Uhuru to a man,” Wambugu said.
“And, that is what Uhuru is
going to do. He is going to ensure that Mt Kenya votes for Raila to a man,” he
said. “You can’t compare Uhuru of 2002 and Raila because he (Raila) is an
experienced politician who has run for the presidency four times,” he stated.
However, Kabazi Ward Rep Peter
Mbae said that although Uhuru commands a lot of respect in Mt Kenya, selling
Raila in the region will not be smooth-sailing. “He is trying to manage his
transition by partnering with ODM,” he said.
“Personally, I respect the
President very much because he has done his bit; I now have power and tarmacked
roads in my ward. If he was vying for another term I would vote for him,” he
said.
Mbae, who is eyeing the
Subukia parliamentary seat in Nakuru county, said Raila will be a clear
beneficiary of Sagana III, adding it is going to boost his vote basket. “For
Ruto, it is not a surprise, it is obvious Uhuru is doing everything he can to
help Raila.
“I don’t think it will change
much, last Sagana meetings happened but nothing changed, so even with this
nothing much will change,” said Mbae, adding that President Kenyatta risks
denting his legacy by openly campaigning for his foe-turned-ally, Raila.
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