By Alessandra Prentice, BISSAU Guinea-Bissau
After
weeks of political turmoil including violent protests, an alleged coup attempt
and the emergence of two competing prime ministers, Guinea-Bissau is holding a
presidential election on Sunday that many hope will usher in a semblance of
calm.
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| A poster of presidential candidate Domingos Simoes Pereira covers side of building under construction in Bissau, Guinea-Bissau November 21, 2019. |
The vote will pit President Jose Mario Vaz against
old rival and former Prime Minister Domingos Simoes Pereira, and 10 other
candidates seeking to draw a line under five years of turbulence under Vaz
characterized by high-level sackings and a barely functioning parliament.
“As soon as a new president is elected, Bissau will
turn one of the gloomier pages of its history,” said homemaker Virginia Mendes
on her way to the shops in the capital Bissau this week.
Pereira, who has styled himself as a modernizer, is
seen as the front-runner by political observers in Guinea Bissau and
internationally.
Whatever the result, the vote represents a
milestone of sorts for Guinea Bissau, which has suffered nine coups or
attempted coups since independence from Portugal in 1974. The West African
country’s scattered Atlantic islands, mangrove mazes and unpoliced waters have
made it a paradise for adventurous tourists and cocaine traffickers en route
from South America to Europe.
Vaz will be the first democratically elected
president to have completed a full term in the country of 1.6 million.
“It used to be coups and assassinations and now
it’s the busy politics of coalition and all sorts of political maneuvering,”
said Vincent Foucher of the French National Centre for Scientific Research.
The next president will inherit difficulties caused
in part by the political system, in which the majority party or coalition
appoints the government but the president has the power to dismiss it in
certain circumstances.
A pre-election crisis arose from a long-running
power struggle between Vaz and the ruling party that has led to a carousel of
seven prime ministers since he took over in 2014.
In the latest round of prime-ministerial musical
chairs, Vaz fired premier Aristides Gomes on Oct. 29 and appointed a successor
to him, but Gomes refused to step down. For around 10 days the country had two
prime ministers until Vaz backed down under pressure from the international
community, which said his moves were illegal.
Regional bloc ECOWAS had warned of the threat of
civil war and urged the authorities not to allow the election to be derailed.
ECOWAS has played a prominent role in trying to
resolve the crisis, imposing economic sanctions on people it judged to be
undermining efforts to end the impasse in 2018, including members of Vaz’s
faction and his son.
In late October, Prime Minister Gomes accused
presidential candidate Umaro Cissoko Embalo of planning a coup. Embalo denied
the charge. Meanwhile one protester was killed in a violent anti-government
demonstration in early November.
The African Development Bank says the protracted
instability has muddied the outlook for the economy, which despite annual
growth of around 5% is already hostage to the volatile price of cashew nuts
that are the main income source for over two-thirds of households.
“There is a hope that this election, which comes
after the legislative election earlier this year, will bring some stability ...
with a more solid ruling coalition,” Foucher said.
Drugs and corruption remain a problem, however.
There have been high-profile busts this year, including the discovery in
September of a record 1.8 tonnes of cocaine hidden in flour bags.
In the past the army has been quick to intervene in
politics. Most recently, the 2012 leadership race was abandoned after soldiers stormed
the presidential palace.
But the military has not picked sides in the
current crisis and has said it will support the police in safeguarding Sunday’s
vote.
Apart from Vaz and Pereira, main contenders in the
race include former prime ministers Umaro Sissoco Embalo and Carlos Gomes
Junior, and Nuno Nabiam who is supported by the country’s large Balanta ethnic
group. There are 750,000 registered voters.
Embalo and Nabiam have used the campaign trail to
accuse ECOWAS of overreach and threatening Guinea-Bissau’s sovereignty.
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