Kigali, RWANDA
On Tuesday, in a lengthy investigation using data
journalists, the Financial Times said Rwanda has manipulated its poverty
statistics. In 2015, France 24 had already reported that Kigali had fiddled
with its economic statistics.
President Kagame and Commander in Chief of Rwanda Defense Forces. |
Four years ago credible insider
sources told France 24 that Rwanda had manipulated its poverty statistics.
Now, the Financial Times, using data journalists, has reached the
same conclusion.
The manipulation took place just
before a referendum in 2015 that allowed President Paul Kagame to
extend his then 15-year rule for up to another two decades.
Within this context, Kagame
could not accept statistics which would show that poverty had
risen.
The Financial Times writes that its “analysis
of the survey’s more than 14,000 data points and interviews with academics
shows that rising prices for Rwandan families meant poverty most likely
increased between 2010 and 2014”.
The English daily adds
that “there has been a consistent attempt since 2015 to misrepresent the
results” regarding poverty.
Rwanda has
rejected the newspaper’s findings, as has the World Bank – at
least officially, for the Financial Times also published Tuesday for the first
time an internal letter that five World Bank staff members wrote to
the institution’s leaders in 2015.
The authors voiced their concern
over what they called “the manipulation of official statistics and failure to
provide reliable data openly”.
“Recent developments point to potentially serious reputation risks for
the Bank if its Rwanda operations continue in the current trajectory,” the
letter said.
While
international NGOs such as Human Rights Watch regularly accuse the Rwandan
government of oppressing its people, Rwanda is
usually praised by the West for its development policies.
But
according to information obtained by FRANCE 24 and Belgian university professor
Filip Reyntjens, Kigali has brazenly manipulated its latest official report on
poverty in the central African country.
The story
starts with private organisation Oxford Policy Management (OPM), which regularly provides
statistical data on Rwanda’s socio-economic situation. OPM hands over this data
to Rwanda, which then publishes it.
But in
the most recent case – concerning a report entitled “Integrated Household
Living Conditions Survey” (EICV4),
focusing on the period 2013-14 and published last month – the facts appear to
have been altered by the Rwandan government department responsible for
publishing official economic statistics.
“This
time there was a disagreement between OPM and Rwanda over the methodology
used,” one source close to the case – who like most sources who criticize
Rwanda asked to remain anonymous – told FRANCE 24.
This
source contacted Dr Filip Reyntjens,
professor of African Law and Politics at the University of Antwerp, who is
considered one of the leading experts on Rwanda today.
“The
government changed the methodology, especially the poverty line, before
publishing the report,” Reyntjens told FRANCE 24. “So in the final report,
instead of going up, poverty levels appears to have gone down by several
percentage points.”
“We redid
the calculations using the initial methodology, and the results show that the
poverty rate actually rose by six percent in 2013-14,” he added.
To obtain
this decrease in the poverty levels, the authors modified the consumption
criteria of the poorest Rwandans.
“They
massively reduced the quantities (by 70% of more) of three traditional staples:
sweet potato, Irish potato and banana,” another source, who also asked not to
be named, told FRANCE 24. “This is not valid and therefore we cannot have
confidence in the new poverty line as put forward by the report.”
The
Rwandan authorities do state in the report state they had to “update” the
methodology. They also compare the EICV4 results with previous reports, an
incorrect and misleading argument because of the altered methodology.
Furthermore,
in previous reports OPM was always mentioned as one of the authors. This time
it isn’t, and OPM members reportedly refused to be named because of the
changes.
OPM told
FRANCE 24 they had submitted work for EICV4 but did not want to make any
further comment.
“Our
contract has a confidentiality clause that prevents us from disclosing any
information about the work that we have done for Stats Rwanda,” said OPM
Director Simon Hunt.
FRANCE 24
also asked the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, responsible for
publishing the final report, for a reaction. At first they did not respond. The
Institute later said that director had gone on holiday for several weeks.
A beggar in Kigali City, Rwanda |
The
United Kingdom is one of Rwanda’s biggest donors, and London is regularly
accused of being too lenient with President Paul Kagame, who has been Rwanda’s
de facto leader for more than twenty years.
A change in the constitution will soon allow him to run
for a controversial third term in office, and any proof that he has been able
to reduce poverty in Rwanda will be a significant advantage.
London
has jumped to defend Kigali amid the latest allegations. The Department for
International Development (DFID), a United Kingdom government department responsible for
administering overseas aid, told FRANCE 24 it was “aware of concerns raised by
some people regarding the latest poverty estimates in Rwanda”.
“We
believe the revision of the methodology used to estimate poverty levels for the
EICV4 poverty survey was justified,” a DFID spokesman added.
Filip
Reyntjens, from the University of Antwerp, strongly disagrees: “There were no
major changes in the structure of people’s consumption. They didn’t only update
the poverty line, as they say, but they went as far as artificially reducing it
to give the impression that the poverty rate was going down when in reality it
was going up.
John and Paul come together as President Kagame welcomes President Magufuli to his home in April 2016, giving him five cows. |
“There is
no methodological justification for that.”
To
explain why the West – and particularly the UK – remains silent on such blatant
manipulation, one leading expert on Rwanda, who asked not to be named, put
forward several reasons.
“There
are strategic interests,” the expert said. “Seven years ago Kagame decided that
English would replace French in schools and in government administration. His
country joined the Commonwealth and London is Rwanda’s biggest aid donor, so if
the country’s results are good it shows that the aid money is being used
efficiently.”
For Filip
Reyntjens, the EICV4 case is serious. “Rwanda is keen on showing strong
‘development’ and the international community continues to accept a trade-off
between this ‘development’ and repression,” he said.
“If this
‘development’ is not based on evidence, as appears to be the case now, all that
is left is repression.” Financial Times/France 24
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