Credibility of elections under threat globally

By Luke Anami

Twenty-one African countries experienced significant declines in the credibility of elections between 2020 and 2024, Stockholm-based intergovernmental organisation, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.

One in three voters this year is casting a ballot in countries where election quality is worse than five years ago, according to a report by the International IDEA.

Between mid-2020 and mid-2024, one in five elections was challenged in at least one legal proceeding, with voting and vote counting emerging as the most-litigated aspects of the electoral process.

During the period, one in five elections saw a losing presidential candidate or losing party in parliamentary elections publicly reject the outcome of the election, and opposition parties boycotted one in 10 elections.

When 79 of 114 armed conflicts worldwide are concentrated in one region, Africa, all aspects of democracy, representation, rights, rule of law, and participation, are hit.

These factors combine to challenge public confidence in political processes.

According to the ‘Global State of Democracy 2024 Report’, the decline is a threat to democracy globally.

“Declines in the factors of representation were most common in mid-range performing countries, with Africa, the Americas, and Asia and the Pacific particularly affected,” said Dr Kevin Casas-Zamora, International IDEA secretary-general.

“The single-worst area of decline is credible elections in Africa, where 21 countries (40 percent) performed at a significantly worse level than they had five years before (in 2018).”

Examples of the declines in representation and rights can be seen mostly in Africa, where coups have clear impacts on both representation and rights, especially as leaders come to power in the absence of polls, and many then suspend rights in order to maintain their new grip on power.

Africa has experienced nine coups since August 2020 in Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Gabon, Chad and Mali.

Since the beginning of last year, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and Sao Tome and Principe have all witnessed failed coup attempts. Some coup leaders have tried to justify their actions by citing growing violence and insecurity.

Since 2020, within the East African Community, Tanzania, Burundi, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, DRC and Somalia have since gone to polls and listed as having performed at a worse level than they had in 2018.

Democracy continued its recent decline in 2023, with notable challenges emerging with regard to representation and rights.

A majority of governments in the EAC cracked down on media, civil society, controlled electoral commissions and their outcomes, limited the use of the internet thereby infringing on the freedom of expression and freedom of speech, undermining the processes.

“Assessing each country’s various areas of improvement and deterioration, we find that, on balance, four in nine countries were worse off in 2023 than they had been in 2018, while only one in four had improved, continuing a negative trend that developed roughly,” said Dr Zamora.

In recent years, democracies and autocracies alike have seen a rise in digital repression through Internet shutdowns, censorship, the spyware, disinformation and information manipulation.

“Perhaps most urgently, public faith in electoral integrity today is threatened by false narrative, often fuelled by opportunistic politicians and often without evidence, that seek to discredit elections. Such threats can have dire impacts on public trust,” says the report.

“Disinformation in particular causes significant worry, but there is little systematic data to demonstrate the severity of impact on voters, their behaviour and resulting perceptions.

Still, advances in ‘pre-bunking’, which is understood as ‘inoculating’ people against disinformation so that they are better able to identify it, are important.”

The eruption of AI adds complexity for democracies and the exercise of rights.

“Generative AI has the capacity—for now theoretical—to alter and disrupt elections with deceptive content,” the report says.

“Algorithms compromise freedom of expression and access to information during elections. An already-stressed information environment is being further strained by new actors, tactics, techniques and procedures.”

Kenya experienced disinformation and eruption of AI during the generation of the presidential election results in August 2022.

According to the report, which evaluated the state of democracy in 173 countries, among the 39 countries with a significant decline in the Credible Elections index, 38 saw increasing levels of government intimidation.

Out of the 39, 33 saw higher levels of irregularities in the electoral process, 30 saw a decrease in Electoral Management Body (EMB) autonomy, and 29 saw a decline in EMB capacity.

The report revealed that despite a vibrant associational life is a vital support to democracy, a number of countries were culpable in suppressing activities of the media, civil society and other actors thus affecting the credibility of elections.

In Tanzania, Chadema and other opposition leaders were denied a chance to openly campaign for their candidates.

In Uganda and Rwanda opposition leaders are either detained or denied the right to campaign for the presidential elections.