In a rebel-held Myanmar town, fragile unity pushes junta to the brink

MYAWADDY, Myanmar

Myawaddy, a critical trading post in Myanmar that rebel forces seized from the ruling junta last week, offers a glimpse of dynamics playing out across the Southeast Asian country as its vaunted military reels from battlefield losses.

At the border town's outskirts, the site of the most intense fighting, abandoned homes sat next to buildings pockmarked with bullet holes, gas stations damaged by blasts and structures flattened by airstrikes, our reporters saw on a visit this week.

Rebels who fought against junta troops in Myawaddy described a demoralised military that was unwilling to hold its ground.

"We managed to seize three bases and control the area in a very short period of time," said Saw Kaw, a commander of a rebel unit involved in the battle for Myawaddy. "Then, they fled."

Guards from ethnic militias until recently loyal to the military administration roamed streets in the town - normally a conduit for over $1 billion of annual border trade with nearby Thailand. Those fighters stood aside when forces led by the Karen National Union (KNU) laid siege in early April.

Our reporter gained rare access to rebel-held territory on Monday and interviewed seven resistance officials for this story, alongside three Thai officials with detailed knowledge of the conflict and four security analysts.

They provided insight into the delicate diplomacy between armed groups with longstanding rivalries as they seek to hold key population centres and keep the junta they want to topple on the backfoot.

will be some of the first to vote in the seven-phase election on Friday, but campaigning is being held behind doors due to fears of violence.

The fall of Myawaddy means that Myanmar's two most important land border crossings are in resistance hands, after the rebels last year claimed control of Muse, near the Chinese border.

Rebel successes have now cut off the cash-strapped junta from almost all the country's major land borders, with the economy in free-fall and poverty doubling since 2017, according to U.N. data.

The Thailand-based Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar (ISP) think-tank said in an estimate after Myawaddy's fall that the junta has been deprived of 60% of land-based customs revenue.

It leaves the junta, which has failed to repel any major rebel offensive since October, in its weakest position since its 2021 coup against Aung San Suu Kyi's elected civilian government, according to analysts.

Neighbours such as Thailand, who were previously focused on engaging the junta, have started to rethink their stance on the conflict.

Thai Vice Foreign Minister Sihask Phuangketkeow told Reuters on Wednesday that Thai security officials have been in communication with the KNU and other groups and that they were "open to more dialogue," particularly on humanitarian issues.

"We don't blindly side with the Myanmar military but because we want peace we have to talk to them," he said.

A junta spokesperson did not respond to calls from Reuters seeking comment.

Junta chief Gen. Min Aung Hlaing has accused rebel groups of seeking to undermine Myanmar's unity through armed insurgency and his government has called resistance fighters "terrorists."

The Democratic Karen Buddhist Army and Karen National Army (KNA), the forces still patrolling parts of Myawaddy and its vicinity even after they abandoned the junta, did not return requests for comment. The groups have not pledged loyalty to the resistance.