How the widening war in Ukraine will cost the world

WASHINGTON, USA

Many wars, from World War I to the conflict in Iraq, at first seem certain to end quickly with a short, violent shock. But often they confound such predictions, degenerating into protracted slogs with domino effects that cause distant and far-reaching political, economic and humanitarian effects.

Russia's war on Ukraine is following this pattern. After starting with predictions of a blitzkrieg to seize Kyiv two months ago, the war is set to drag on for weeks and months, if not longer.

The consequences of a war that last even that long are grave. Given Russian President Vladimir Putin's vicious assault on civilians it will mean many more Ukrainian dead and almost inevitably more atrocities and war crimes. There will be an ever present danger of the war spilling over and causing a wider conflagration -- both militarily and in a growing showdown over Russia's energy exports, which Europe badly needs.

Any time two nuclear powers as large as Russia and the US are locked in even an indirect conflict, as is the case given Washington's massive injection of arms into Ukraine, the possibility of a direct confrontation remains.

And a longer war means more uncertainty for Western leaders.

Global food insecurity is likely to worsen from a ruined Ukrainian harvest, potentially adding to destabilization and unrest around the world.

In the US, it will also cost people already struggling with inflation, soaring grocery bills and ballooning costs of filling up their gas tanks, which could spell huge political problems for President Joe Biden in a midterm election year.

There is one core reason why the war will drag on.

The strategic picture in Ukraine, with the country far from defeat and the invader not yet vanquished, means neither side has a burning incentive to pursue urgent diplomacy to end the war.

Ukraine has no trust for Putin following his unprovoked invasion, which was meant to crush its independence and national identity, and the carnage he has visited on the country. The heroism of its citizen army and the accelerating flow of offensive western arms is encouraging hopes of victory in Kyiv.

Putin, meanwhile, has not yet achieved any of his goals after a humiliating pull back from the outskirts of Kyiv. Despite reported heavy losses of men and materiel, his generals have laid out new war aims for their troops to grind out -- the seizure of the entire southern Ukrainian coast -- to strangle the country by cutting off its access to the Black Sea.

The United States has recognized these developments with a shift in strategy laid out this week that seeks to use an effective proxy war to weaken Russia so severely it can no longer threaten Europe.

But Ukraine fears a widening of the battlefield. Officials warned Wednesday of a possible new front in the south-west along the Moldovan border, involving the pro-Russian enclave of Transnistria.

And the threat of a full-blown energy war that could trigger a recession and severe hardship in Europe -- and knock-on effects in the US -- became more likely Wednesday when Russia cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, two NATO members that were once in the Soviet Union's orbit.

The primary result of a longer war -- one that has already featured some of the worst atrocities in Europe since the Nazi era -- will tragically mean many more Ukrainians will be killed or forced from their homes. But the deprivation and threat to life will not be contained within the country's borders.

Indications that war will go on for months will worsen increasingly dire economic shock waves. The World Bank, for instance, warned on Wednesday that the conflict had already caused the worst spike in commodity prices in 50 years. In the US, this means more expensive grocery bills for Americans -- and deeper political headaches for Biden.

But it's worse in the developing world. Rising grain prices in nations afflicted by poverty and already poor nutrition are a life-and-death issue for millions of people.

Fast-moving indications of a widening footprint of the Ukrainian war on Wednesday coincided with more nuclear saber rattling by Putin, who warned that Russian foes who interfered in Ukraine would face a heavy price.

"We have all the tools for this. Ones that no one can brag about. And we won't brag. We will use them if needed," Putin said.

The frightening rhetoric may be a sign Russia is feeling pressure because its goals for the invasion have so far fallen short of its expectations. But his words are a worrying reminder of the constant danger of an escalation of the conflict, especially since the US is testing Russia's red lines with its gusher of weapons systems flowing into Ukraine.

In Washington and Moscow, there is now a common acknowledgment that this war is about far more than Ukraine, and may be the opening engagement in a prolonged and wider geopolitical struggle.

"If Russia gets away with this cost-free, then so goes the so-called international order, and if that happens, then we're entering into an era of seriously increased instability," Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told CNN Tuesday.

Russia's top brass also appreciates the wider dimensions of a conflict that has destroyed the certainties of the post-Cold War world, and turned their country into an international pariah.

"Now, we are at war with the whole world," said top Russian Gen. Rustam Minnekaev in comments cited by the Financial Times and the B.Z. newspaper in Berlin. - CNN