WASHINGTON, USA
Many wars, from World War I to
the conflict in Iraq, at first seem certain to end quickly with a short,
violent shock. But often they confound such predictions, degenerating into
protracted slogs with domino effects that cause distant and far-reaching
political, economic and humanitarian effects.
Russia's war on Ukraine is
following this pattern. After starting with predictions of a blitzkrieg to
seize Kyiv two months ago, the war is set to drag on for weeks and months, if
not longer.
The consequences of a war that
last even that long are grave. Given Russian President Vladimir Putin's vicious assault on
civilians it will mean many more Ukrainian dead and almost inevitably more
atrocities and war crimes. There will be an ever present danger of the war
spilling over and causing a wider conflagration -- both militarily and in a
growing showdown over Russia's energy exports, which Europe badly needs.
Any time two nuclear powers as
large as Russia and the US are locked in even an indirect conflict, as is the
case given Washington's massive injection of arms into Ukraine, the possibility
of a direct confrontation remains.
And a longer war means more
uncertainty for Western leaders.
Global food insecurity is likely to worsen from a
ruined Ukrainian harvest, potentially adding to destabilization and unrest
around the world.
In the US, it will also cost
people already struggling with inflation, soaring grocery bills and ballooning
costs of filling up their gas tanks, which could spell huge political problems
for President Joe Biden in a midterm election year.
There is one core reason why
the war will drag on.
The strategic picture in
Ukraine, with the country far from defeat and the invader not yet vanquished,
means neither side has a burning incentive to pursue urgent diplomacy to end
the war.
Ukraine has no trust for Putin
following his unprovoked invasion, which was meant to crush its independence
and national identity, and the carnage he has visited on the country. The
heroism of its citizen army and the accelerating flow of offensive western arms
is encouraging hopes of victory in Kyiv.
Putin, meanwhile, has not yet
achieved any of his goals after a humiliating pull back from the outskirts of
Kyiv. Despite reported heavy losses of men and materiel, his generals have laid
out new war aims for their troops to grind out -- the seizure of the entire
southern Ukrainian coast -- to strangle the country by cutting off its access
to the Black Sea.
The United States has
recognized these developments with a shift in strategy laid out this week that
seeks to use an effective proxy war to weaken Russia so severely it can no
longer threaten Europe.
But Ukraine fears a widening
of the battlefield. Officials warned Wednesday of a possible new front in the
south-west along the Moldovan border, involving the pro-Russian enclave of
Transnistria.
And the threat of a full-blown
energy war that could trigger a recession and severe hardship in Europe -- and
knock-on effects in the US -- became more likely Wednesday when Russia cut off
gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, two NATO members that were once in the Soviet
Union's orbit.
The primary result of a longer
war -- one that has already featured some of the worst atrocities in Europe
since the Nazi era -- will tragically mean many more Ukrainians will be killed
or forced from their homes. But the deprivation and threat to life will not be
contained within the country's borders.
Indications that war will go
on for months will worsen increasingly dire economic shock waves. The World
Bank, for instance, warned on Wednesday that the conflict had already
caused the worst spike in commodity prices in 50 years. In the US, this means
more expensive grocery bills for Americans -- and deeper political headaches
for Biden.
But it's worse in the
developing world. Rising grain prices in nations afflicted by poverty and already
poor nutrition are a life-and-death issue for millions of people.
Fast-moving indications of a
widening footprint of the Ukrainian war on Wednesday coincided with more
nuclear saber rattling by Putin, who warned that Russian foes who interfered in
Ukraine would face a heavy price.
"We have all the tools
for this. Ones that no one can brag about. And we won't brag. We will use them
if needed," Putin said.
The frightening rhetoric may
be a sign Russia is feeling pressure because its goals for the invasion have so
far fallen short of its expectations. But his words are a worrying reminder of
the constant danger of an escalation of the conflict, especially since the US
is testing Russia's red lines with its gusher of weapons systems flowing into
Ukraine.
In Washington and Moscow,
there is now a common acknowledgment that this war is about far more than
Ukraine, and may be the opening engagement in a prolonged and wider
geopolitical struggle.
"If Russia gets away with
this cost-free, then so goes the so-called international order, and if that
happens, then we're entering into an era of seriously increased
instability," Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told CNN Tuesday.
Russia's top brass also
appreciates the wider dimensions of a conflict that has destroyed the
certainties of the post-Cold War world, and turned their country into an
international pariah.
"Now, we are at war with
the whole world," said top Russian Gen. Rustam Minnekaev in comments cited
by the Financial Times and the B.Z. newspaper in Berlin. - CNN
