Kenya President to endorse opposition chief against intransigent Deputy President

NAIROBI, Kenya

All eyes will be on President Uhuru Kenyatta today as he hosts delegates from the Mt Kenya region at Sagana State Lodge, Nyeri county, to rally the vote-rich region behind ODM leader Raila Odinga.

Dubbed Sagana III after two previous meetings at the same venue, today’s event will be followed keenly not just by political observers but also by the leading protagonists, Raila and Deputy President William Ruto.

It is even more significant considering the events that have shaped the country’s politics in the last four years, particularly the bitter fallout between President Kenyatta and his deputy that caught Kenyans, by surprise.

While defiant Ruto enjoys significant support in Mt Kenya, going by recent opinion polls, it is no longer a secret that Uhuru is ready to go the whole hog to reclaim the region from Ruto’s grip.

Today’s event is also expected to shift top gears in the race for the August 9 presidential election as Uhuru firms up his succession plan—rekindling memories of his first stab at the presidency way back in 2002. 

It is worth noting that the President was welcomed into politics through a baptism of fire when President Moi endorsed him much to the chagrin of the more experienced politicians around him.

Although Uhuru had promised to pass the baton to Ruto at the end of his constitutional two terms, Kenyans were treated to a surprise turn of events when he shifted his support to Raila.

The Handshake on the steps of Harambee House on March 9, 2018, changed the course of the country’s politics permanently, with Ruto steadily being shoved aside as Raila began playing key roles in the Jubilee administration.

And since the fallout between the President and his deputy, Raila has been Uhuru’s shield as Ruto led a de-facto opposition movement within Jubilee.

For almost three years, Uhuru and Raila refuted growing speculation that the Handshake had been designed to help the former premier succeed the President.

But it was only until mid-last year when Uhuru started giving tell-tale signs of his desire to have Odinga succeed him amid protests from the Ruto side.

And in recent days, Uhuru has given clear indications he prefers Raila as his successor, warning the country against Ruto’s candidature.

It is a decision that political scientists and analysts say is a double-edged sword that can cut from both sides.

Prof Macharia Munene, a former lecturer at USIU-Africa and Dr Richard Bosire of the University of Nairobi warn that Uhuru must play his cards well.

“The success of the Sagana III meeting will obviously give Ruto sleepless nights. But at the same time, Uhuru and Raila will come out of it badly injured if the delegates in the meeting decide to defy his message,” says Munene.

On the other hand, Bosire says that failure of the Sagana meeting to make an impact would provide Ruto, the presumed Kenya Kwanza Alliance presidential candidate, with the ammunition to brand Raila “as a puppet through whom Uhuru and his allies are seeking to extend their rule through the back door.”

“If the people of Mt Kenya fail to heed Uhuru’s persuasion to support Raila, it would give Ruto plenty of arsenal to tell the country that the former premier is unsaleable, which would be hard to campaign against,” says Bosire.

The two dons believe it will be quite difficult for Raila to win without garnering considerable support from Mt Kenya given the inroads the DP has made in his former stronghold regions of the Coast and Western.

Apart from winning the soul of Mt Kenya through Uhuru’s persuasion, the two dons say, he must work hard to bring on board Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka to be assured of the presidency.

“Today’s meeting could be the beginning of the long road towards winning the soul of Central Kenya. I am sure after the meeting; the President will have to make inroads in the region to explain to the rural people why he prefers Raila to Ruto. That message needs to sink in people’s minds well,” says Munene.

Yesterday, Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu told People Daily that today’s event heralds tough moments for Ruto, saying Uhuru will use it to tell Mt Kenya why he prefers Raila to the DP.

According to Wambugu, the region is steadily shifting towards Raila and today’s event will push him further up the populous Mt Kenya. “It is going to be a bad day for Ruto,” the legislator said.

He dismissed those asking Uhuru to remain impartial and avoid taking sides, saying it is his democratic right to endorse and vote for a candidate of his choice. “He (Uhuru) has a right to tell Kenyans who to vote for…” he said.

“He is saying there are two candidates, one who has supported him in the last two years and is ready to continue where he is going to leave and one who has not supported him in the last two years and is not ready to continue with his projects,” Wambugu said.

He said thousands of delegates from the 10 Mt Kenya counties had been invited to the event, adding that “earthshaking” political statements that will change the course of politics will be issued.

Although President Moi did not manage to make Uhuru president in 2002, he successfully rallied the Kalenjin behind him, he said, adding: “In fact Moi convinced the Kalenjin to vote for Uhuru to a man,” Wambugu said.

“And, that is what Uhuru is going to do. He is going to ensure that Mt Kenya votes for Raila to a man,” he said. “You can’t compare Uhuru of 2002 and Raila because he (Raila) is an experienced politician who has run for the presidency four times,” he stated.

However, Kabazi Ward Rep Peter Mbae said that although Uhuru commands a lot of respect in Mt Kenya, selling Raila in the region will not be smooth-sailing. “He is trying to manage his transition by partnering with ODM,” he said.

“Personally, I respect the President very much because he has done his bit; I now have power and tarmacked roads in my ward. If he was vying for another term I would vote for him,” he said.

Mbae, who is eyeing the Subukia parliamentary seat in Nakuru county, said Raila will be a clear beneficiary of Sagana III, adding it is going to boost his vote basket. “For Ruto, it is not a surprise, it is obvious Uhuru is doing everything he can to help Raila.

“I don’t think it will change much, last Sagana meetings happened but nothing changed, so even with this nothing much will change,” said Mbae, adding that President Kenyatta risks denting his legacy by openly campaigning for his foe-turned-ally, Raila.