Tanzania's population to hit 189.9 million in year 2100 as the world's population drop

By Osoro Nyawangah, MWANZA Tanzania

Tanzania's population will increase from the current 59·8 Million to a peak of 185·96 Million by 2100 as the world's population increase from the current 7.8 billion to a peak of 9.7 billion by 2064, before dropping back to 8.8 billion by the century's end; 2 billion less than UN predictions.  A major study published on Wednesday said.

Tanzania has a high fertility rate of 4.8 births per woman and a high birth rate of 36.2 births per 1,000 people with population growing at a rate of 2.8%.

According to the study, Kenya will reach population peak of 83.8 million people in the year 2071, Uganda 120.63 million (2093), Burundi 42·57 million (2100), Ethiopia 240·29 million (2080), Madagascar 105·77 million (2100), Rwanda 33·33 million (2092) and South Sudan 68·95 million (2100).

In the central Africa, the DR Congo is projected to hit 246·35 million (2100) from the current population of 80·88 million people, South Africa’s population will reach peak of 77·97 million (2073) with Nigeria reaching 790·73 million (2100) from the current 206·09 million and Egypt reaching 199·06 million people (2100) from current population of 96·48 million.

According to the researchers, by year 2100, total 183 of 195 countries barring an influx of immigrants will have fallen below the replacement threshold needed to maintain population levels.

The populations of 23 countries will be half their current levels, with another 34 countries facing falls of 25 to 50%.

The United Nations in 2019 projected the world population could reach 11.2 billion by 2100.

Though the UN acknowledged that fertility rates are diminishing and populations ageing in many countries, the study in British medical journal The Lancet contends that the UN model did not "allow for alternative scenarios linked to policies or other drivers of fertility and mortality." Once the population declines, "it will probably continue inexorably," the researchers said.

The world can expect to see a changing global balance of power as a result of declining fertility rates and aging populations, the international team of academics from the University of Washington concluded.

By 2100, more than 20 countries, including Japan, Spain, Italy, Thailand, Portugal, South Korea and Poland, can expect to see their numbers decline by at least half.

China's will drop from 1.4 billion people today to 730 million in 80 years. Meanwhile, Sub-Saharan Africa will triple in size to some 3 billion people, with Nigeria alone expanding to almost 800 million in 2100, second only to India's 1.1 billion.

According to the Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, Christopher Murray, These forecasts suggest good news for the environment, with less stress on food production systems and lower carbon emissions, as well as significant economic opportunity for parts of sub-Saharan Africa.

"However, most countries outside of Africa will see shrinking workforces and inverting population pyramids, which will have profound negative consequences for the economy," Murray said.

The study concluded that the best solutions for maintaining population levels and economic growth in high-income countries includes flexible immigration policies and social support for families who want children.

"However, in the face of declining population there is a very real danger that some countries might consider policies that restrict access to reproductive health services, with potentially devastating consequences," Murray who is the lead author of the study warned. 

Understanding potential patterns in future population levels is crucial for anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and health-care needs, and environmental and economic landscapes.

Future fertility patterns are a key input to estimation of future population size, but they are surrounded by substantial uncertainty and diverging methodologies of estimation and forecasting, leading to important differences in global population projections.

Changing population size and age structure might have profound economic, social, and geopolitical impacts in many countries. - Africa