By Ahmed Rasheed and Ahmed Aboulenein, BAGHDAD Iraq
The killing of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is
of considerable importance, experts believe, but the underlying reasons for his
jihadist group’s existence remain and attacks in the Middle East and beyond are
not likely to stop.
Baghdadi’s
death at the hands of the United States is likely to cause Islamic State to
splinter, leaving whoever emerges as its new leader with the task of pulling
the ultra hardline group back together as a fighting force.
Whether
the loss of its leader will in itself affect the group’s capabilities is open
to doubt, analysts in the region say. Even if it does face difficulties in the
leadership transition, the underlying ideology and the sectarian hatred it
promoted remains attractive to many.
Where
once they rode around in armored vehicles, brandished rifles, flew black flags
and indulged in acts of spectacular cruelty, the Sunni Muslim militants are now
prisoners or scattered stragglers whose leader was chased down in a tunnel
during a raid by American Special Forces.
“Operationally
it doesn’t affect much, they are already broken and globally their attacks have
receded,” said Rashad Ali, resident senior fellow at the Institute for
Strategic Dialogue, a London-based think-tank. “They are mostly concentrated in
the Iraqi-Syria borderlands.”
“It
doesn’t make much of a difference other than the symbolism,” he said. “If you
think taking out one terrorist (matters) while failing to address the root
causes that led this ideology to take hold, you are mistaken.”
But some
of those grievances are very much on show today. Sunni Muslims in Iraq are
angered at their treatment by a ruling Shi’ite elite they see as under the
influence of Iran and the Iranian-backed militias that now roam their provinces
unchecked.
In Syria,
recruitment to groups such as Islamic State is encouraged by the killing of
Sunnis by Syrian government forces backed by Iran and Russia.
Islamic
State’s effectiveness arises from its members’ loyalty to its ultra-fanatical
Islamist ideology, and this may not be much affected by the killing of its
leader, said Fadhil Abu Ragheef, an Iraqi political analyst and security
expert.
He said
Islamic State’s 9-man Shura Council, or leadership group, was expected to meet
and appoint a leader from among five candidates.
Among the
front runners are Abu Abdullah al-Jizrawi, a Saudi, and Abdullah Qaradash, an
Iraqi and one of Baghdadi’s right-hand men, also a former army officer under
Saddam Hussein. Also mentioned is Abu Othman al-Tunisi, a Tunisian.
“The new
leader will start working to pull together the group’s power by relying on new
recruits and fighters who fled the prisons in Syria. He is expected to launch a
series of retaliatory attacks for the killing of Baghdadi,” said Abu Ragheef.
It is
possible that whoever takes over as the head of the group, which experts say
has been beset by internal disputes, will cause it to splinter within months
because he is unacceptable on grounds of nationality to some factions.
“For sure
they will fight among themselves over resources. I predict the Iraqi faction
will win because they have more money,” said Iraqi analyst Hisham al-Hashemi,
an expert on jihadist groups.
A
security source with knowledge of militant groups in Iraq said the killing of
Baghdadi would splinter the group’s command structure because of differences
between senior figures and lack of confidence among group members who were
forced to go underground when the caliphate collapsed.
“We are aware that killing Baghdadi will not lead
to the disappearance of Islamic State because eventually they will pick someone
for the job,” the source said. “But at same time whoever follows Baghdadi will
not be in a position to keep the group united.”
The new leader will attempt to restructure the
group by encouraging followers to launch operations not only in Iraq but in
other countries to raise morale among existing and new followers, the source
said.
By franchising its name, Islamic State has attracted
followers in Africa, Asia and Europe. Incidents such as one in London, where
attackers used easily obtained weapons such as motor vehicles and knives, show
that lack of organizational backing is not an obstacle.
In South East Asia, where Islamic State has spread
its influence, officials believe the group’s ideas will have to be fought even
after Baghdadi’s death.
“His death will have little impact here as the main
problem remains the spread of the Islamic State ideology,” Malaysian police
counter-terrorism chief Ayob Khan Mydin Pitchay told Reuters.
“What we are
most worried about now are ‘lone wolf’ attacks and those who are
self-radicalised through the internet. We are still seeing the spread of IS
teachings online. IS publications and magazines from years ago are being
reproduced and re-shared,” he said.
In Iraq, where Baghdadi proclaimed his caliphate
from the Grand al-Nuri Mosque in 2014, authorities have pursued a policy of
taking out senior Islamic State figures as an effective way of keeping the
group on the back foot.
Hashemi argues that more is needed.
“They have the ability to regroup. The way to stop
that is through real fostering of democracy and civil society, truly addressing
grievances, in short, creating an environment that repels terrorism,” he said.
“Killing leaders is definitely a good thing but it
does not prevent their return, only creating such an environment does,” he
added. - Reuters
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