BIRAO, Central African
Republic
The Russian mercenary group
that briefly threatened President Vladimir Putin’s authority has
for years been a ruthless force-for-hire across Africa, protecting rulers at
the expense of the masses. That dynamic is not expected to change now that the
group’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has been exiled to Belarus as punishment for the failed
rebellion.
The Wagner Group brutalizes civilians in the Central African Republic, Mali and
elsewhere to crush dissent and fend off threats to their leaders’
power. In exchange, Russia gains access to natural resources and ports through
which weapons can be shipped, and receives payments that enrich
the Kremlin and help it fund operations elsewhere, including the war in
Ukraine.
Neither Russia nor the African
leaders dependent on Wagner’s fighters have any interest in ending those
relationships. But many questions linger in the aftermath of Wagner’s stunning
revolt, such as who will lead its thousands of fighters stationed across many
African nations and whether Moscow will absorb these fighters into the Russian
army.
“The situation is extremely
volatile,” said Nathalia Dukhan, senior investigator at The Sentry, a
U.S.-based policy organization that published an investigative report Tuesday
accusing Wagner of carrying out various human-rights abuses in African countries.
“But what we have learnt from investigating and analyzing Wagner in Africa in
the past 5 years is that the group is resilient, creative, fearless and
predatory, so it is less likely that the Wagner empire will instantly fall like
a house of cards.”
Beyond the financial rewards,
Putin has also sought to use Wagner fighters to help expand Russia’s presence in the Middle East and Africa.
He seeks out security alliances with autocrats, coup leaders, and others who
have been spurned or neglected by the U.S. and Europe, either because of their bloody abuses or because of competing
Western strategic interests.
Asked
whether Wagner’s weekend mutiny could erode Russia’s positions in Africa,
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told a state-run TV network that
security assistance to African countries would continue. He specifically
mentioned the Central African Republic and Mali, and noted that Russian
government officials have maintained contact with leaders there.
Lavrov told RT he has not seen
“any sign of panic or any sign of change” in African nations over the revolt
against Moscow. But amid the uncertainty, there is at the very least some
confusion about what exactly comes next.
In Mali, where at least 1,000
Wagner fighters replaced French troops brought in to fight Islamic extremists,
the U.S. alleges that the Kremlin uses the country as a way-station for arms
shipments to Russian forces in Ukraine. But the Malian government has denied
using Wagner for any purpose other than training.
An officer in the Malian Air
Force who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was unauthorized to
comment publicly said Russian fighters play an important combat role.
“At the moment we don’t have
enough pilots, and most of our military aircraft and combat helicopters are
flown by Wagner’s men. If Russia asks the Malian government to stop cooperating
with Wagner, we’ll be obliged to do so, because we have a greater interest in
the Russian government than in Wagner,” the officer said.
As part of a deal to end the
rebellion, Putin has presented Wagner fighters with three options: either
join the Russian military, go to Belarus like Prigozhin, or return home. It was
not clear if those options also applied to Wagner fighters in Africa.
In the Central African
Republic, a statue in the capital, Bangui, pays tribute to Russian mercenaries
who have helped keep President Faustin-Archange Touadera in power. Lavrov told
RT that hundreds of Russian fighters would remain there.
Regardless of who ultimately
oversees the Wagner fighters in the Central African Republic, the source of
their authority remains clear, said Jordy Christopher, a special adviser to
Touadera. “Prigozhin is nothing more than a pawn in the handling of the art of
war, moreover he is only the tip of the iceberg,” he said.
Wagner operates in roughly 30
countries, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and
it faces numerous human rights violations, including extrajudicial killings. Its fighters are most
influential in African countries where armed conflicts have forced leaders to
turn to Moscow for help, such as Libya and Sudan.
“The African leadership of
these countries need them,” said Federica Saini Fasanotti, a senior Fellow at
Brookings Institution’s Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology.
Still, some experts said the
revolt against the Kremlin will force African countries reliant on Wagner to
pay closer attention to how they engage with Russia, where Putin faces the
gravest threat to his authority since coming to power more than two decades
ago.
“Developments in Russia will
likely render many African countries more cautious in their engagement with
Russia moving forward,,” said Ryan Cummings, director of Africa-focused
security consulting company Signal Risk.
Any unexpected turn of events
domestically in Russia poses potential threats to African leaders who have
become dependent on its foreign fighters to stay in power, such as those in
Mali and the Central African Republic.
“Any withdrawal could readily
be exploited by non-state groups challenging the authority of the government in
these countries,” said Cummings.
